217 N Birney St · Bay City, MI 48708

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1892 0.34 ac lot Est $107k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1892

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $75k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.59%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,812
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 N Hampton St	0.17mi	2/1.0	840 (+1%)	5mo	$112,000	$133	86
1911 15th St	0.36mi	2/1.0	871 (+5%)	2mo	$123,000	$141	73
806 15th St	0.55mi	2/1.0	770 (-7%)	2mo	$56,800	$74	61
614 Mulholland St	0.60mi	2/1.0	800 (-3%)	8mo	$118,250	$148	59
720 S Sherman St	0.57mi	2/1.0	920 (+11%)	2mo	$232,000	$252	53
613 S Lincoln St	0.47mi	2/2.0	770 (-7%)	12mo	$158,100	$205	52
310 S Farragut St	0.35mi	2/1.0	915 (+10%)	20mo	$94,900	$104	50
1017 S Lincoln St	0.72mi	2/1.0	936 (+13%)	4mo	$87,900	$94	42
714 S Madison St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+9%)	7mo	$100,000	$111	42
415 S Sherman St	0.38mi	2/1.0	936 (+13%)	23mo	$49,000	$52	41
1009 S Sherman St	0.72mi	2/1.0	944 (+14%)	9mo	$122,000	$129	36
1001 18th St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	933 (+13%)	14mo	$117,215	$126	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $10,815
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $39,050
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,203/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	0.41mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.83mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.04mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 48-char remark

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $75,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $75,000 Active 48-char remark

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

5. 2019-01-14
   listed $34,900
6. 2017-11-15
   historical
7. 2017-05-16
   listed $18,000
8. 2012-11-30
   soldstatus $16,000
9. 2012-10-22
   listed $18,800
10. 2009-03-20
    soldstatus $6,700
11. 2008-10-10
    listed $13,300
12. 2008-07-14
    historical
13. 2007-09-15
    listed $32,700
14. 2004-12-08
    historical
15. 2004-07-08
    listed $55,000
16. 2002-09-05
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,203
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$800
• After-tax cash flow: $3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-01-14 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-16 Listed $18,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-11-30 Sold (MLS) $16,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-10-22 Listed $18,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-20 Sold (MLS) $6,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-10 Listed $13,300 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-07-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-15 Listed $32,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-08 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,203 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.