The Harper Plan · San Antonio, TX 78224

$252,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,841 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Harper is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. The plan conveniently offers 3 bedrooms upstairs with walk-in closets, 2.5 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room. Downstairs, homeowners love the Harper for its open-concept entry, family room, kitchen, dining, and additional flex room spaces, ideal for welcoming guests and getting work done at home.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Flex room spaces
• Open-concept entry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT ENTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FLEX ROOM SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: San Antonio, TX 78224
• Financial info: List price $252,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: The Harper floor plan
• Construction: New construction (plan-built)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1841 (per plan); Property listed as a new construction plan

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,913.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,932 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.84%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,913
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -7.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10315 Fuji Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,841 (0%)	1mo	$257,990	$140	96
10303 Liberty Grv	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (+5%)	1mo	$287,990	$148	81
10826 Apple Pie Rd	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (+3%)	0mo	$312,851	$165	73
10303 Mission Arc	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,914 (+4%)	1mo	$226,000	$118	68
10323 Liberty Grv	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,111 (+15%)	1mo	$306,255	$145	68
10706 Marlin Pond	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+0%)	1mo	$225,999	$122	60
10715 Red Shiner Run	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+0%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	60
10711 Red Shiner Run	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,885 (+2%)	1mo	$264,999	$141	59
10315 Bluegill Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,896 (+3%)	1mo	$248,999	$131	59
10707 Red Shiner Run	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-9%)	1mo	$220,499	$132	46
10622 Red Shiner Run	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,015 (+10%)	0mo	$267,999	$133	44
10307 Bluegill Way	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,015 (+10%)	1mo	$275,999	$137	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $117,847
• Equity at exit: $247,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $361,748
• Equity at exit: $534,096

Cash invested: $76,976 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $211,404

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-344	+0% $-439	+5% $-534	+10% $-629
Rent	-10% $-585	-5% $-512	+0% $-439	+5% $-366	+10% $-293
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-369	base $-439	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,728
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2434 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2417	$2,500	$1.03	0d	1	0.08mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	25d	1	0.15mi
2350 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	45d	1	0.16mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.16mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	6d	1	0.18mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.19mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.21mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	45d	1	0.23mi
10610 Apple Pie Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	25d	1	0.27mi
2242 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.32mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.33mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	25d	1	0.35mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	25d	1	0.36mi
2222 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	25d	1	0.37mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	45d	1	0.41mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.47mi
2111 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.48mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	45d	1	0.49mi
2026 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1383	$1,650	$1.19	6d	1	0.50mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	45d	1	0.53mi
10127 State Highway 16 S San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1125	$1,200	$1.07	4d	26	0.53mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	45d	1	0.54mi
10523 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.54mi
10710 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.55mi
10723 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.58mi
11327 Clearmine San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,650	$1.21	0d	2	0.70mi
11318 Clearmine St #101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	0.75mi
11318 Clearmine St Unit 103 South Southwest, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,514	$1.11	45d	1	0.75mi
11318 Clearmine St Unit 104 South Southwest, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.75mi
1347 Neria LOOP San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,699	$0.78	45d	1	0.76mi
10811 Soupe CV San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,995	$0.92	4d	1	0.76mi
11326 Clearmine St Unit 104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,614	$1.19	45d	1	0.77mi
12305 SW Loop 410 San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$1,318	$1.27	18d	1	0.79mi
3263 Rancho Grande San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	25d	1	0.81mi
3322 Rancho Grande San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2094	$1,895	$0.90	13d	1	0.87mi
10119 Jardin Verde San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1944	$1,750	$0.90	45d	1	0.91mi
3331 Rosita Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1848	$1,800	$0.97	45d	1	1.00mi
10414 Espada Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	1.01mi
3434 Hacienda Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2141	$1,900	$0.89	18d	1	1.04mi
3434 Hacienda Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2141	$2,000	$0.93	23d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $252,990 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,990 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,990 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,990 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,990 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,990 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,990 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,990 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $252,990 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,990 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,990 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,990 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,990 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $252,990 Active 362-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$10,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B