18 Arch St · Manchester, CT 06040

$700,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,840 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1919 0.31 ac lot Est $584k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

4 Family house to be sold in as is condition. Property can't be shown until november 10, 2006.

Key facts

• Updated kitchens
• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1919

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• FULLY OCCUPIED 4-FAMILY
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY
• UPDATED KITCHENS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• OVERSIZED LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Electric domestic hot water
• Home design: Multi-family property (4-family)
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Shingle gable roof
• Exterior features: City views; Level lot; Aluminum siding

Interior

• Bedrooms: 10 bedrooms total
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating fuel
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $258/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $700k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#59 in CT, #3,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Manchester School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #130 of 153 in CT (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,217/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 1839% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $312k; list at $700k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $700,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $583,680
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Church St	0.49mi	8/4.0	4,032 (+5%)	1mo	$560,000	$139	68
203 Center St	0.29mi	8/5.0	4,104 (+7%)	4mo	$710,000	$173	68
39 Chestnut St	0.43mi	8/4.0	3,882 (+1%)	21mo	$550,000	$142	60
14 Saint Lawrence St	0.62mi	8/3.0	3,311 (-14%)	4mo	$502,000	$152	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-55,012
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $7,109
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06040

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 32.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$706 /mo · $8,466/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,516
• Net cashflow: $1,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,909

Max offer price $700,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,430	-5% $1,232	+0% $1,033	+5% $835	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $463	-5% $748	+0% $1,033	+5% $1,318	+10% $1,604
Rate	-1.0pp $1,386	-0.5pp $1,211	base $1,033	+0.5pp $852	+1.0pp $667

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$7,216
Total (4 units)			$7,217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $700,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $700,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,466 · $706/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,723 · $977/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,257/yr (+$271/mo · 38.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$8,466
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,928
• − Management: −$6,928
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable income: $1,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $12,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester School District
• NCES district ID: 0902310
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,391
• Composite: 24.54/100
• National rank: #7643
• State rank: #130 of 153 in CT

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #3580

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, CT
• County: Hartford County · 754,208 people
• City population: 59,635
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 35,813
• Household income: $83,422
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1839.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 15% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.69%
• Current HPI: 190.4204
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+241.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $700,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-30 Rental Removed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-02-26 Listed for Rent $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-02-16 Rental Removed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-16 Listed for Rent $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-03-24 Rental Removed $1,875 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,875 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-04 Rental Removed $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-01-04 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-04 Listed for Rent $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-09-11 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2007-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $312,500 Public Records
• 2007-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-03 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Smart MLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $205,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,466 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.