106 Pierce St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1948 3,432 sqft lot Est $286k · 30% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Terrific 4-bedroom home with large living room and kitchen on quiet street near shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. 2-Full Bath, Fenced Yard with Detached Garage, Vinyl Windows and New Roof in 2017. A lot of home at a great price close to everything less than 10min to Canalside and the Lakefront Downtown with Affordable Taxes. Furnace and A/C 10yrs old. H-W tank 5yrs old.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Roof replacement
• Central air system

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• MAJOR MECHANICAL UPDATES
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• NEW FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM
• NEWER KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Security: Fully fenced lot
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Block foundation; Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Resale property; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approximately 33 x 104)
• Construction: Built (existing); Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Hot tub/spa; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen (see interior features)
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate formal living room; Hot tub/spa (interior feature noted); Natural woodwork; Main level primary bedroom; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,600 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,293
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 S Pierce St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,574 (+6%)	7mo	$290,000	$184	77
287 Willett St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,342 (-10%)	3mo	$192,000	$143	76
236 Weimar St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,544 (+4%)	4mo	$165,000	$107	72
175 Cable St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,582 (+7%)	3mo	$100,000	$63	71
202 S Ogden St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,592 (+7%)	6mo	$205,500	$129	71
143 Weiss St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,410 (-5%)	3mo	$106,000	$75	70
104 Weimar St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,549 (+4%)	5mo	$172,900	$112	69
238 S Ogden St	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,565 (+6%)	8mo	$228,000	$146	68
258 Holly St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+8%)	5mo	$245,000	$154	65
9 Marann Ter	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-14%)	2mo	$265,000	$207	61
580 S Ogden St Unit W	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,362 (-8%)	3mo	$145,800	$107	56
253 N Meadowbrook Pkwy	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,346 (-9%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $74,761
• Equity at exit: $152,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $222,863
• Equity at exit: $303,797

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $177,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-73	+0% $-129	+5% $-186	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-183	+0% $-129	+5% $-76	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-78	base $-129	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	1.00mi
1368 Harlem Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1776	$1,300	$0.73	25d	1	1.05mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	16d	1	1.06mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	1.06mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.10mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	3d	1	1.15mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	45d	1	1.16mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	1.31mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	3d	1	1.41mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.43mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,323/yr (+$110/mo · 180.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $-309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+148.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Sold (MLS) $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-12-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-17 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.