1054 Oak St · Montgomery, AL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $916 – $1,700
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 7/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 78.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +6.4/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.7/10.0
$37,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
!!! INVESTORS OPPORTUNITY !!!. THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS WITH THIS MIX USE ZONED RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL TEAR DOWN PROPERTY! HERE'S YOUR CHANCE FOR YOU TO DEVELOP A MULTIPLE FAMILY, A CULTURAL COMMUNITY CENTER, ENTERTAINMENT SPACE, ETC, ,,
Key facts
- 6,098 sq ft lot
- Garage
- Built 1940
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
- Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
- Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $1k of equity ($262 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
- Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $7k; list at $38k implies a 441% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.04% ✓
- Cap rate
- 28.15%
- Cash-on-cash
- 78.05%
- DSCR
- 4.47
- GRM
- 2.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $21,104
- List price
- $37,900
- Delta
- 79.58%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1136 Persons St | 0.22mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,320 (+3%) | 6mo | $10,000 | $8 | 74 |
| 317 Georgia St | 0.58mi | 2/1.0 | 1,232 (-4%) | 4mo | $16,000 | $13 | 64 |
| 1148 Bragg St | 0.14mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,456 (+14%) | 6mo | $18,000 | $12 | 60 |
| 2128 Early St | 0.31mi | 2/1.0 | 1,119 (-12%) | 10mo | $30,000 | $27 | 56 |
| 1402 Bragg St | 0.41mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,232 (-4%) | 18mo | $52,000 | $42 | 55 |
| 2134 Early St | 0.32mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,350 (+6%) | 24mo | $70,000 | $52 | 51 |
| 1208 S Holt St | 0.31mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,404 (+10%) | 14mo | $17,000 | $12 | 51 |
| 840 Hill St | 0.33mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,188 (-7%) | 21mo | $35,000 | $29 | 50 |
| 1555 Sierra St | 0.49mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,151 (-10%) | 21mo | $42,700 | $37 | 38 |
| 612 Clarke St | 0.65mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,424 (+11%) | 17mo | $83,000 | $58 | 27 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
2.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 82.3%
- Equity multiple
- 5.52×
- Total profit
- $47,932
- Equity at exit
- $16,419
- IRR
- 82.0%
- Equity multiple
- 11.34×
- Total profit
- $109,756
- Equity at exit
- $24,830
Cash invested: $10,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Alabama
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 36108
- Home prices YoY
- 2.9%
- Active inventory
- 65
- Price-to-rent
- 2.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,153 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$199
- Tax from tax record
- −$6 /mo · $77/yr
- Insurance
- −$16
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$242
- Net cashflow
- $690
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $712 | -5% $701 | +0% $690 | +5% $636 | +10% $623 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $599 | -5% $645 | +0% $690 | +5% $736 | +10% $781 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $709 | -0.5pp $700 | base $690 | +0.5pp $680 | +1.0pp $670 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $9,475
- Closing costs
- $1,137
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 15 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Flood St Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1140 | $1,000 | $0.88 | 22d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 1314 S Court St Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1650 | $1,495 | $0.91 | 14d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 545 Clay St Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1104 | $1,050 | $0.95 | 45d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 605 Maxwell Blvd Montgomery, AL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 971 | $1,943 | $2.00 | 14d | 11 | 1.05mi |
| 3225 McElvy St Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1258 | $1,350 | $1.07 | 14d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 1301 S Perry St Unit A Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $950 | $0.86 | 14d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 1020 S Lawrence St Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1711 | $2,000 | $1.17 | 14d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 3220 Doris Cir Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1139 | $1,100 | $0.97 | 45d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 1259 S Lawrence St Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1728 | $1,300 | $0.75 | 45d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 2654 Rutland St Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1176 | $1,075 | $0.91 | 22d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 207 Montgomery St Montgomery, AL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 890 | $1,785 | $2.01 | 14d | 4 | 1.26mi |
| 718 W Edgemont Ave Unit A Montgomery, AL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 875 | $875 | $1.00 | 45d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 718 W Edgemont Ave Unit B Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 875 | $800 | $0.91 | 22d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 105 Arlington Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $925 | $0.84 | 45d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 2655 W Edgemont Ave Montgomery, AL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1743 | $875 | $0.50 | 45d | 1 | 1.40mi |
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $37,900 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $37,900 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $37,900 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $37,900 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $37,900 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $37,900 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $37,900 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $37,900 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $37,900 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $37,900 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $37,900 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $37,900 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $37,900 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $37,900 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $37,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $37,900 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-02-09$37,900 Active 243-char remark
Show marketing remark (243 chars)
!!! INVESTORS OPPORTUNITY !!!. THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS WITH THIS MIX USE ZONED RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL TEAR DOWN PROPERTY! HERE'S YOUR CHANCE FOR YOU TO DEVELOP A MULTIPLE FAMILY, A CULTURAL COMMUNITY CENTER, ENTERTAINMENT SPACE, ETC, ,,
-
2023-10-19soldstatus $7,000 Closed 177-char remark
Show marketing remark (177 chars)
THE HOME NEEDS LOTS OF LOVE, BUT WITH NEW PAINT, ROOF, AND MODIFY FLOOR IN HALLWAY YOU WILL HAVE A EXCELLENT RENTAL OR HOMR FOR YOURSELF. WITH THIS PRICE HOW COULD YOU GO WRONG?
-
2023-10-18status Pending 177-char remark
Show marketing remark (177 chars)
THE HOME NEEDS LOTS OF LOVE, BUT WITH NEW PAINT, ROOF, AND MODIFY FLOOR IN HALLWAY YOU WILL HAVE A EXCELLENT RENTAL OR HOMR FOR YOURSELF. WITH THIS PRICE HOW COULD YOU GO WRONG?
-
2023-10-05historical Contingent 177-char remark
Show marketing remark (177 chars)
THE HOME NEEDS LOTS OF LOVE, BUT WITH NEW PAINT, ROOF, AND MODIFY FLOOR IN HALLWAY YOU WILL HAVE A EXCELLENT RENTAL OR HOMR FOR YOURSELF. WITH THIS PRICE HOW COULD YOU GO WRONG?
-
2023-10-03$7,000 Active 177-char remark
Show marketing remark (177 chars)
THE HOME NEEDS LOTS OF LOVE, BUT WITH NEW PAINT, ROOF, AND MODIFY FLOOR IN HALLWAY YOU WILL HAVE A EXCELLENT RENTAL OR HOMR FOR YOURSELF. WITH THIS PRICE HOW COULD YOU GO WRONG?
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $77 · $6/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $155 · $13/mo
- Expected delta
- +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 102.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,840
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,123
- − Property taxes
- −$77
- − Insurance
- −$190
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,107
- − Management
- −$1,107
- − Depreciation
- −$1,103
- Taxable income
- $8,134
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,952
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,330/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Montgomery County
- NCES district ID
- 0102430
- Math proficiency
- 9% ▼ -21.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,902
- Composite
- 17.24/100
- National rank
- #9093
- State rank
- #106 of 129 in AL
Livability — Montgomery
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #138
- US rank
- #13416
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Montgomery, AL
- City population
- 175,913
- Population (ZIP)
- 15,549
Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 224,008 people
- By 2030
- 221,460 · -1.1%
- By 2040
- 214,179 · -4.4%
- By 2050
- 204,912 · -8.5%
- By 2075
- 177,821 · -20.6%
- By 2100
- 145,134 · -35.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (82%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 82% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 2.71%
- Current HPI
- 95.2405
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.94%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 1 | $8B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 1 | $5B |
|
||
Price history
+441.4% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-09 Listed $37,900 MAAR
- 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $7,000 MAAR
- 2023-10-18 Pending — MAAR
- 2023-10-05 Contingent — MAAR
- 2023-10-03 Listed $7,000 MAAR
Property tax history
+2.6%/yrLatest (2025): $77 · -21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…