8689 Breeze Hill Dr · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 259 Days on market

Built 1983 4,792 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Did not represent seller, for sale by owner that we represented the buyer

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Upgraded kitchen
• Re-plumbed

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RE-PLUMBED
• OPEN PORCH
• SCREENED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area about 1,032 square feet; Total rooms: 9
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $200; about $16.67/month) — fee includes private road; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces southwest; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a lot of approximately 0.11 acres
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Lake access with fishing pier and skiing allowed; Public road access (asphalt)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $140k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.77%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,578
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,748
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,820/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $261	+0% $221	+5% $182	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $162	+0% $221	+5% $280	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $257	base $221	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 240 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 239 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 238 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    status Active
16. 2026-03-10
    status Pending
17. 2025-11-07
    status Active
18. 2025-11-06
    historical
19. 2025-09-29
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2025-09-18
    historical
21. 2025-09-06
    status Active
22. 2025-07-02
    status Pending
23. 2025-03-26
    listed $140,000 Active
24. 2018-03-12
    soldstatus $64,000
25. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus $64,000 Sold 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Did not represent seller, for sale by owner that we represented the buyer

26. 2018-02-28
    historical 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Did not represent seller, for sale by owner that we represented the buyer

27. 2018-02-28
    listed $64,000 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Did not represent seller, for sale by owner that we represented the buyer

28. 2008-04-11
    soldstatus $55,000
29. 2008-04-02
    soldstatus $55,000
30. 2007-08-12
    listed $63,000
31. 2004-07-02
    soldstatus $57,000
32. 1999-04-15
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,820
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$107
• After-tax cash flow: $2,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+337.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-01 Sold (MLS) $64,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-28 Listed $64,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-02 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-12 Listed $63,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,820 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.