216 N Grayson St · Newbern, TN 38059

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1974 10,454 sqft lot $84/sqft · at area comps Est $169k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

Key facts

• Totally renovated
• Fenced back yard
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• TOTALLY RENOVATED
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($2/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Newbern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#75 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,673 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,475
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
526 W Main St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+0%)	3mo	$100,000	$51	72
209 Clearview Acres Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,063 (+6%)	1mo	$175,000	$85	68
313 Washington St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-11%)	6mo	$325,000	$187	54
502 W Main St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (-6%)	20mo	$164,000	$89	51
415 N York St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,778 (-9%)	19mo	$299,000	$168	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,776
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,572
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38059

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

2. 2026-05-16
   historical 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

3. 2026-04-13
   price $164,900 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

4. 2026-03-16
   price $179,000 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

5. 2026-01-29
   price $180,000 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

6. 2025-12-17
   listed $209,900 Active 306-char remark

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   This 3BR home is located on a large corner lot with fenced back yard. Totally renovated and move in ready makes this the one to look inside of. The large primary bedroom adds privacy with a split bedroom plan. Spacious kitchen will make all your gatherings a breeze. Call now to schedule your private tour.

7. 2023-10-26
   soldstatus $47,500
8. 2000-12-20
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$30/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dyer County
• NCES district ID: 4701050
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,865
• Composite: 33.19/100
• National rank: #5536
• State rank: #16 of 139 in TN

Livability — Newbern

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #9033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newbern, TN
• Population (ZIP): 8,822

Population outlook (Dyer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,770 people
• By 2030: 35,863 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 33,989 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 32,124 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 25,745 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dyer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.7pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+37.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.08%
• Current HPI: 209.849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+146.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-05-16 Delisted — CWTAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $164,900 CWTAR
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $179,000 CWTAR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $180,000 CWTAR
• 2025-12-17 Listed $209,900 CWTAR
• 2023-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2000-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $805 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.