The Elvis Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Good condition $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do Not Miss The Elvis, a stunning, modern 1 story, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen.

Key facts

• Listed 107 days

🏗️ New construction. The $169,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $172,568.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,568
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -1.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16725 E Hammon	0.13mi	3/2.0	958 (0%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	90
16900 West Juneau	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+6%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	78
16891 W Dounreay St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+8%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	75
16902 W Alderson	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+10%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	73
241 Ridgeside	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+6%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	73
16729 E Hammon	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+12%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	71
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+8%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	68
16965 W Hammon	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+11%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	66
846 Omeara	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+14%)	2mo	$170,000	$155	59
822 Omeara	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	837 (-13%)	3mo	$156,900	$187	58
16942 W Lynbrook St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-13%)	2mo	$137,900	$166	55
16934 W Lynbrook St	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-13%)	4mo	$140,000	$169	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,373
• Equity at exit: $25,730

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,805
• Equity at exit: $14,921

Cash invested: $48,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$216 /mo · $2,589/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $172,568

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,142
• Closing costs: $5,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.34mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	0.36mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	0.71mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $169,900 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Elvis, a stunning, modern 1 story, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,589
• − Insurance: −$863
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,020
• Taxable loss: −$1,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$265
• After-tax cash flow: $1,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern, single-story home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and well-maintained interior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen updates — Modern kitchen appliances and fixtures can increase the home's appeal to buyers.
• Rental Home office organization — A well-organized home office can attract tenants looking for a professional space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen updates — Modern kitchen appliances and fixtures can increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Rental Home office organization — A well-organized home office can attract tenants looking for a professional space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $169,900 Zillow