516 Reserves Blvd · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2013 7,405 sqft lot Est $310k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Phoenix B- 2 story home, the Master Suite is on the main level along with the Great Rm, Kit, dining and laundry. The Master Suite is roomy as well as the Great Rm. The Kitchen is big with center island. There is easy flow of traffic from the Great Rm, Kitchen and dining areas with the laundry room handy to the Kitchen. The garage is on the main level with easy access to the Kitchen for easy unloading of groceries. Upstairs are 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. This community is part of the Mallard Lake community and will share in the future amenities, pool and lakeside park. This home is not located in the flood plain.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Primary suite
• Great room

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• GREAT ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• SOLAR PANELS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• LAKESIDE PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared with sidewalk access; Partial privacy wood fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 105 (0.17 acres); Located in the Boulders of Mallard Lake subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowner association with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway access
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Solar panels installed
• Home design: Single family residence; Traditional-style home; Two stories; Built in 2013; Entry facing/front entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding with stone accents; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: No other exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on the first floor; A full bathroom located on the second floor; Half bathroom on the first floor
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Seven closets; No basement; Great room on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,905 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 Reserves Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+3%)	1mo	$301,000	$183	88
167 Bullitt Creek Dr #19	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-2%)	2mo	$275,000	$176	85
563 Reserves Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (+1%)	6mo	$298,000	$184	84
488 Reserves Blvd	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,543 (-4%)	3mo	$305,000	$198	84
195 Gadwall Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+1%)	3mo	$299,000	$184	82
446 Redcrest Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-4%)	5mo	$305,000	$198	69
306 Mallard Pointe Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-13%)	0mo	$270,000	$194	63
478 Mud Hen Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+8%)	4mo	$319,990	$185	57
435 Tara Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-9%)	1mo	$280,000	$193	55
563 Mud Hen Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-12%)	1mo	$323,713	$229	53
548 Mud Hen Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-12%)	1mo	$327,089	$231	53
490 Mud Hen Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-12%)	3mo	$299,900	$212	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,544
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-67,216
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $274,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-87	+0% $-174	+5% $-260	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-262	+0% $-174	+5% $-85	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-96	base $-174	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	24d	1	0.47mi
163 Grandview Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $301,000 Closed
2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-03-21
   price $305,000
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $312,000 Active
6. 2014-12-16
   historical 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   The Phoenix B- 2 story home, the Master Suite is on the main level along with the Great Rm, Kit, dining and laundry. The Master Suite is roomy as well as the Great Rm. The Kitchen is big with center island. There is easy flow of traffic from the Great Rm, Kitchen and dining areas with the laundry room handy to the Kitchen. The garage is on the main level with easy access to the Kitchen for easy unloading of groceries. Upstairs are 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. This community is part of the Mallard Lake community and will share in the future amenities, pool and lakeside park. This home is not located in the flood plain.

7. 2014-12-12
   soldstatus $161,001 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   The Phoenix B- 2 story home, the Master Suite is on the main level along with the Great Rm, Kit, dining and laundry. The Master Suite is roomy as well as the Great Rm. The Kitchen is big with center island. There is easy flow of traffic from the Great Rm, Kitchen and dining areas with the laundry room handy to the Kitchen. The garage is on the main level with easy access to the Kitchen for easy unloading of groceries. Upstairs are 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. This community is part of the Mallard Lake community and will share in the future amenities, pool and lakeside park. This home is not located in the flood plain.

8. 2013-07-12
   listed $163,950 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   The Phoenix B- 2 story home, the Master Suite is on the main level along with the Great Rm, Kit, dining and laundry. The Master Suite is roomy as well as the Great Rm. The Kitchen is big with center island. There is easy flow of traffic from the Great Rm, Kitchen and dining areas with the laundry room handy to the Kitchen. The garage is on the main level with easy access to the Kitchen for easy unloading of groceries. Upstairs are 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. This community is part of the Mallard Lake community and will share in the future amenities, pool and lakeside park. This home is not located in the flood plain.

9. 2013-06-21
   soldstatus $39,000
10. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus $178,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,623 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$7,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+69.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $301,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $305,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $312,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-12-16 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2014-12-12 Sold (MLS) $161,001 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-07-12 Listed $163,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $178,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,446 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.