407 Gaines St · Elmira, NY 14904

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1935 5,500 sqft lot Est $103k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE NATURAL WOODWORK. HARDWOOD FLOORS. FIREPLACE IS DECORATIVE. UPDATED BATH. NEW CARPETING IN LR & DR. WALK-UP ATTIC FLOORED & INSULATED, READY TO BE FINISHED. FULL BASEMENT WITH SOME DAMPNESS. NEWER HW TANK, SOME WORK NEEDED, BUT PRICED TO SELL.

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: One-story; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Living/Dining room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ernie Davis Academy (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #691 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 802 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $89k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.87%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
561 Post St	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,004 (+3%)	8mo	$112,500	$112	73
543 Schuyler Ave	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	928 (-4%)	2mo	$81,000	$87	67
207 Morrow St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	976 (+0%)	8mo	$96,900	$99	65
242 Home St	0.32mi	2/1.0	888 (-9%)	7mo	$75,000	$84	65
559 Post St	0.34mi	2/1.0	875 (-10%)	10mo	$115,000	$131	59
733 Robinson St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,105 (+14%)	10mo	$117,500	$106	58
767 Erie St	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,036 (+7%)	8mo	$23,000	$22	57
218 Brand St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+4%)	12mo	$22,000	$22	55
1008 Parkside Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+7%)	10mo	$115,000	$111	55
415 Charlesmont Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	15mo	$111,300	$110	50
206 Overland St	0.42mi	2/1.0	848 (-13%)	16mo	$97,800	$115	46
208 Rathbun St	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,096 (+13%)	16mo	$26,500	$24	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,671
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $24,532
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,364/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $292	+0% $267	+5% $242	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $219	+0% $267	+5% $316	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $290	base $267	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
752 S Main St Unit 2 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	841	$995	$1.18	45d	1	0.75mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	45d	1	1.01mi
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	1.09mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	45d	1	1.18mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	45d	1	1.27mi
418 W Church St Apt 2 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $100,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
20. 2026-05-01
    listed $110,000 Active
21. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $36,000
22. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus $36,000 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    NICE NATURAL WOODWORK. HARDWOOD FLOORS. FIREPLACE IS DECORATIVE. UPDATED BATH. NEW CARPETING IN LR & DR. WALK-UP ATTIC FLOORED & INSULATED, READY TO BE FINISHED. FULL BASEMENT WITH SOME DAMPNESS. NEWER HW TANK, SOME WORK NEEDED, BUT PRICED TO SELL.

23. 2004-08-23
    listed $42,500 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    NICE NATURAL WOODWORK. HARDWOOD FLOORS. FIREPLACE IS DECORATIVE. UPDATED BATH. NEW CARPETING IN LR & DR. WALK-UP ATTIC FLOORED & INSULATED, READY TO BE FINISHED. FULL BASEMENT WITH SOME DAMPNESS. NEWER HW TANK, SOME WORK NEEDED, BUT PRICED TO SELL.

24. 1991-09-20
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$2,364
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $1,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-10 Sold (MLS) $36,000 UNYREIS
• 2004-08-23 Listed $42,500 UNYREIS
• 1991-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,364 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.