103 Meadow St · Johnstown, NY 12095

$124,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $129k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a small 2BR house, totally renovated in 2014. This house would be great for a couple starting out or for a carefree home for seniors. This home is cheap to heat and has very low taxes. .. . please have proof of funds or a preapproval letter from a bank before showing

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
• Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $125k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,124 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.24%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Wells St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,053 (-3%)	2mo	$89,000	$85	70
5 W Green St	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,134 (+4%)	8mo	$65,000	$57	66
104 Wells St	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,134 (+4%)	13mo	$55,000	$49	65
9 Fon Clair St	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+2%)	5mo	$160,000	$145	64
605 S Perry St	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+4%)	9mo	$135,000	$119	56
601 S Perry St	0.60mi	2/1.0	936 (-14%)	1mo	$160,000	$171	48
1779 State Highway 67	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	10mo	$214,000	$178	47
314 Wells St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+6%)	15mo	$150,000	$131	47
306 S William St	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,237 (+14%)	11mo	$192,500	$156	44
9 Water St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,222 (+12%)	10mo	$140,000	$115	43
411 N Market St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	8mo	$110,000	$92	40
207 Fon Clair St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	965 (-11%)	9mo	$28,000	$29	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $87,078
• Equity at exit: $112,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.90×
• Total profit: $241,414
• Equity at exit: $242,846

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12095

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $124,999 Active
16. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$393
• After-tax cash flow: $3,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnstown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 34.89/100
• National rank: #5082
• State rank: #509 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2603

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B Cost of living A Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,013

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Current HPI: 297.365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $124,999 FSBO.com
• 2014-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.