653 NW Liberia St · Pelham, GA 31779

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1945 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors Special! 3 bedroom 1 bathroom brick home on almost half an acre. This home has so much potential! Large fenced in yard and two screened in porches. Call your favorite agent to see this property today!

Key facts

• Screened in porches
• Fenced in yard
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• SCREENED IN PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 4.8% in Pelham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#483 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mitchell County (rural): math 8% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #167 of 174 in GA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Mitchell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $940 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Mitchell County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.64%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $35,961
• Equity at exit: $16,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $84,259
• Equity at exit: $24,421

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31779

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $355

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $521	+0% $510	+5% $499	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $470	+0% $510	+5% $550	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $520	base $510	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-01
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $4,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mitchell County
• NCES district ID: 1303690
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $36,119
• Composite: 7.87/100
• National rank: #9927
• State rank: #167 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pelham

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #22451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,877

Population outlook (Mitchell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,489 people
• By 2030: 19,310 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 16,971 · -17.2%
• By 2050: 14,616 · -28.7%
• By 2075: 9,435 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 5,424 · -73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Mitchell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.3) · D 41.7% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -4.1pp · 2024: -16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.3 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Current HPI: 242.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $40,000 TABRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.