18740 Caffee Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$284,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,888 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $122,501
• Equity at exit: $256,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $386,559
• Equity at exit: $553,498

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,529

Max offer price $210,586

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	20d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

2. 2026-05-04
   listed $284,900 Active 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

3. 2026-05-04
   listed $284,900

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

4. 2026-05-04
   historical

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

5. 2021-10-22
   soldstatus $220,000 814-char remark

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Dreams of building your custom home are endless as you explore the views available from the numerous home sites on this 34 acre parcel located in the heart of Vance, Al. This cleared, serene, relatively flat property is connected to city sewer and convenient to the Interstate and the planned expansion to 4 lanes of Hwy 11 near Mercedes. Acreage borders two other parcels available for purchase. Bordering this property is a 13.2 acre parcel with a 2800+/- sq ft 4 bedroom/ 3 bath Southern style home that will be listed in the coming weeks, as well as a 33 acre parcel featuring a cabin overlooking a pond, as well as a trailer and a separate trailer lot for rental income. Don't miss this rare opportunity to have potential income, while having all the space to build your dream home on a variety of home sites!

6. 2021-02-12
   listed $274,900 814-char remark

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Dreams of building your custom home are endless as you explore the views available from the numerous home sites on this 34 acre parcel located in the heart of Vance, Al. This cleared, serene, relatively flat property is connected to city sewer and convenient to the Interstate and the planned expansion to 4 lanes of Hwy 11 near Mercedes. Acreage borders two other parcels available for purchase. Bordering this property is a 13.2 acre parcel with a 2800+/- sq ft 4 bedroom/ 3 bath Southern style home that will be listed in the coming weeks, as well as a 33 acre parcel featuring a cabin overlooking a pond, as well as a trailer and a separate trailer lot for rental income. Don't miss this rare opportunity to have potential income, while having all the space to build your dream home on a variety of home sites!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$11,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+3.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-04 Delisted — WAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $284,900 WAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $284,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $220,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-02-12 Listed $274,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $48 · -87.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.