3823 Knollcrest Dr · Conroe, TX 77356

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1983 2,439 sqft lot Est $298k · 47% under $188/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice townhome with 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bath, interior utility room, wood burning fireplace, nice fence in patio backyard, in a very nice neighborhood within walking distance to Lake Conroe. 1430 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• Scenic lake views
• Private marina
• Fitness facilities

Tags

• PRIVATE MARINA
• GOLF COURSE
• COMMUNITY POOLS
• FITNESS FACILITIES
• TENNIS COURTS
• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,420
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11621 Redbird Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (-1%)	15mo	$296,000	$215	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,828
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-33,471
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,766/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	15d	1	0.08mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	43d	2	0.12mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	43d	1	0.17mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	43d	1	0.17mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	5d	1	0.94mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	22d	1	0.95mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	18d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-23
   listed $159,000 Active
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-11-20
   price $170,000
6. 2025-09-17
   price $180,000
7. 2025-06-04
   listed $195,000 Active
8. 2010-07-12
   soldstatus 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Nice townhome with 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bath, interior utility room, wood burning fireplace, nice fence in patio backyard, in a very nice neighborhood within walking distance to Lake Conroe. 1430 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

9. 2010-06-18
   historical 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Nice townhome with 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bath, interior utility room, wood burning fireplace, nice fence in patio backyard, in a very nice neighborhood within walking distance to Lake Conroe. 1430 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

10. 2010-03-26
    listed $60,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Nice townhome with 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bath, interior utility room, wood burning fireplace, nice fence in patio backyard, in a very nice neighborhood within walking distance to Lake Conroe. 1430 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

11. 2008-09-08
    historical
12. 2008-05-31
    listed $95,000
13. 2006-12-04
    soldstatus
14. 1999-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,766 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,766
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+67.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-03-26 Listed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2008-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-05-31 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,766 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.