20843 Waalew · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$107,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 6,320 sqft · Land public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $80k · 33% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 3 bedroom 2 bath situated in a wonderful park. This well kept mobile home shows extremely well. The park has clubhouse and pool very near the home.

Key facts

• Built 1990
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,790 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.28%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,371
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: 80.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $55,745
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $160,348
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $107,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $110,000 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Wonderful 3 bedroom 2 bath situated in a wonderful park. This well kept mobile home shows extremely well. The park has clubhouse and pool very near the home.

16. 2026-03-22
    price $144,900 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    $10,000 Price improvement!! Don't Miss this opportunity to own this meticulously maintained manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2bathrooms with approximately 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space. Pride of ownership shines throughout, making this home truly move-in ready for its next owner. The well-kept interior and exterior create a warm, inviting space. Perfect for a first-time buyer, downsizer, or anyone looking for affordable homeownership in a well-established community. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park in Apple Valley, with convenient access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Land is leased; buyer to obtain park approval. Space rent and park rules to be verified directly with park management. Cash or mobile home financing only.

17. 2026-02-05
    listed $155,000 Active 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    $10,000 Price improvement!! Don't Miss this opportunity to own this meticulously maintained manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2bathrooms with approximately 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space. Pride of ownership shines throughout, making this home truly move-in ready for its next owner. The well-kept interior and exterior create a warm, inviting space. Perfect for a first-time buyer, downsizer, or anyone looking for affordable homeownership in a well-established community. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park in Apple Valley, with convenient access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Land is leased; buyer to obtain park approval. Space rent and park rules to be verified directly with park management. Cash or mobile home financing only.

18. 2025-12-22
    soldstatus $152,000 Closed Sale
19. 2025-10-20
    historical
20. 2025-10-20
    listed $152,000
21. 2023-09-17
    historical
22. 2023-09-01
    status Active
23. 2023-06-30
    status Active
24. 2022-12-11
    listed $70,000 Active
25. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed Sale
26. 2022-06-02
    status Pending Sale
27. 2022-05-20
    price $125,000
28. 2022-05-20
    listed $12,500 Active
29. 2020-11-27
    soldstatus $25,000
30. 2020-10-19
    listed $19,900
31. 2017-07-14
    historical
32. 2016-07-15
    listed $95,000
33. 2014-03-21
    historical
34. 2013-06-21
    listed $30,000
35. 2013-05-03
    soldstatus $6,500
36. 2013-04-08
    listed $7,950
37. 2011-10-27
    soldstatus $5,398,500
38. 2011-06-17
    soldstatus $25,000
39. 2007-03-23
    historical
40. 2007-01-01
    listed $103,000
41. 2001-04-02
    soldstatus $29,900
42. 2001-03-15
    soldstatus $27,000
43. 1999-06-08
    soldstatus $10,500
44. 1999-02-10
    soldstatus $17,000
45. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $1,300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $11,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,798
• After-tax cash flow: $9,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-91.5% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $144,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Sold (MLS) $152,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $152,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-06-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-12-11 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2022-06-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-20 Listed $12,500 CRMLS
• 2020-11-27 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $19,900 CRMLS
• 2017-07-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-07-15 Listed $95,000 SDMLS
• 2014-03-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-06-21 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2013-05-03 Sold (MLS) $6,500 CRMLS
• 2013-04-08 Listed $7,950 CRMLS
• 2011-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $5,398,500 Public Records
• 2011-06-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 2007-03-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-01-01 Listed $103,000 CRMLS
• 2001-04-02 Sold (MLS) $29,900 CRMLS
• 2001-03-15 Sold (MLS) $27,000 CRMLS
• 1999-06-08 Sold (MLS) $10,500 CRMLS
• 1999-02-10 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CRMLS
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $71,396 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.