The Winchester Plan · Hazel Green, AL 35750

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Winchester offers an open concept and is a great home for relaxing or entertaining inside and outside. With lots of natural light and a covered porch and patio, this space is perfect for everyone. The eat-in kitchen connects to the main living and eating spaces to create the perfect Lifestyle Triangle. ® * Home specifications are subject to change based on product availability.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open concept
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $284,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,286.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.9% in Hazel Green — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#54 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hazel Green Elementary School (math 23% / reading 58%, grade F, #238 of 627 statewide, top 38%, 738 students, 50% FRL); Moores Mill Intermediate School (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 840 students, 46% FRL); Hazel Green High School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 1,348 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,930 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.05%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,286
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -17.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Hillis Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,854 (-2%)	4mo	$274,900	$148	88
131 Havner Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,891 (-1%)	4mo	$274,900	$145	73
139 Havner Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,891 (-1%)	4mo	$274,900	$145	71
174 Keller Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (-3%)	1mo	$285,900	$155	70
165 Keller Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (-3%)	3mo	$282,250	$153	70
168 Keller Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,683 (-12%)	3mo	$271,900	$162	61
113 Retriever Run	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-5%)	3mo	$290,000	$161	60
172 Keller Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,683 (-12%)	3mo	$269,900	$160	60
171 Keller Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,683 (-12%)	3mo	$279,000	$166	60
147 Havner Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,753 (-8%)	3mo	$269,900	$154	59
189 Tobin Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-11%)	1mo	$250,000	$148	58
163 Whitner Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$249,280	$150	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $121,810
• Equity at exit: $312,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $411,730
• Equity at exit: $674,700

Cash invested: $97,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35750

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,209/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,038

Max offer price $194,254

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-818	-5% $-938	+0% $-1,058	+5% $-1,178	+10% $-1,298
Rent	-10% $-1,192	-5% $-1,125	+0% $-1,058	+5% $-990	+10% $-923
Rate	-1.0pp $-883	-0.5pp $-969	base $-1,058	+0.5pp $-1,148	+1.0pp $-1,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,822
• Closing costs: $10,419
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
169 Keller Dr Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,665	$1.08	16d	1	0.38mi
147 Tobin Ln Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	0.38mi
143 Havner Dr Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	0.39mi
171 Keller Dr Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1683	$1,616	$0.96	45d	1	0.39mi
108 Karenlee Cir Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,685	$1.01	25d	1	0.44mi
189 Tobin Ln Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,775	$1.05	16d	1	0.48mi
117 Hank Ct Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.55mi
236 Cherry Laurel Dr Hazel Green, AL	4.0	3.0	1964	$1,750	$0.89	25d	1	0.58mi
137 Hazel Pine Trl Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	25d	1	0.85mi
206 Hailey May Ct Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1924	$1,745	$0.91	16d	1	0.88mi
202 Hailey May Ct Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1727	$1,645	$0.95	25d	1	0.90mi
203 Hailey May Ct Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,695	$0.94	25d	1	0.91mi
127 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1727	$1,645	$0.95	16d	1	0.93mi
104 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1971	$1,745	$0.89	25d	1	0.94mi
106 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,684	$0.94	45d	1	0.94mi
119 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1924	$1,745	$0.91	16d	1	0.94mi
102 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1924	$1,745	$0.91	25d	1	0.95mi
115 London Calvin Way Hazel Green, AL	4.0	2.5	1971	$1,734	$0.88	45d	1	0.95mi
100 Brook Glen Dr Hazel Green, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,595	$1.19	16d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $284,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $284,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $294,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $299,900 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    The Winchester offers an open concept and is a great home for relaxing or entertaining inside and outside. With lots of natural light and a covered porch and patio, this space is perfect for everyone. The eat-in kitchen connects to the main living and eating spaces to create the perfect Lifestyle Triangle. ® * Home specifications are subject to change based on product availability.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,453
• − Property taxes: −$5,209
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$10,103
• Taxable loss: −$19,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Hazel Green

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #8575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Green, AL
• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 13,413
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,413
• Household income: $68,389
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 162.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 19% Asian 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.59%
• Current HPI: 444.7418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $299,900 Zillow