2600 Quail Forest Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$196,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1984 0.40 ac lot Est $201k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated home featuring new flooring, fresh paint throughout, painted kitchen cabinets, updated light fixtures, and renovated bathroom vanities. The large front porch offers a welcoming entrance and additional outdoor living space. Spacious rooms and living areas provide a clean, modern feel, while the huge back deck is perfect for entertaining outdoors. Enjoy a spacious yard with plenty of room for pets, play, or gardening. Conveniently located approximately 11–14 miles from Fort Bragg and approximately 8–10 miles from shopping, dining, and entertainment along Skibo Road. Move-in ready with updated comfort and convenience throughout.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Large front porch
• Huge back deck

Tags

• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• RENOVATED BATHROOM VANITIES
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• HUGE BACK DECK
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, 1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank and holding tank
• Home design: Single-family residential home; Zoned R6A (Residential District)
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Storm door(s); Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven and range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings and blinds; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Washer hookup located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($339/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $196k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,011 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2601 Quail Forest Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-6%)	14mo	$195,000	$191	75
5924 Lively Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+1%)	11mo	$211,995	$192	70
2928 Chillingworth Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,131 (+4%)	5mo	$209,900	$186	69
3202 Periwinkle Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	16mo	$164,900	$150	66
5931 Hotspur Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	8mo	$204,000	$176	59
2613 Cameron Woods Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-0%)	10mo	$215,000	$197	58
2510 Silverbell Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-0%)	13mo	$200,000	$184	55
2853 Chillingsworth Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+14%)	7mo	$220,000	$176	54
3029 Rosemeade Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+15%)	1mo	$226,500	$181	53
2625 Cameron Woods Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+9%)	2mo	$210,000	$176	50
2527 Silverbell Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+11%)	14mo	$227,100	$187	39
2607 Wingate Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+11%)	15mo	$140,000	$115	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,306
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-39,851
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $84	+0% $28	+5% $-27	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-35	+0% $28	+5% $91	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $78	base $28	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2935 Chillingworth Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,750	$1.25	15d	1	0.42mi
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	22d	1	0.50mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	15d	1	0.61mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	24d	1	0.74mi
2543 Painters Mill Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,600	$1.39	15d	1	0.76mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	24d	1	0.77mi
2161 Bingham Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	15d	1	0.78mi
5595 Quietwood Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,395	$1.08	24d	1	0.87mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	15d	1	1.10mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	24d	1	1.10mi
2640 Latrobe Ave Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,815	$1.68	15d	30	1.19mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	24d	1	1.21mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	15d	1	1.21mi
2920 Cosmo Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,505	$1.64	15d	9	1.30mi
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	24d	1	1.32mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	1.37mi
3511 Birchfield Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1270	$1,685	$1.33	15d	5	1.40mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $196,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $196,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2012-03-28
    soldstatus $76,500
19. 2009-04-21
    soldstatus $87,000
20. 2005-10-17
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$3,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+141.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $200,000 LPRMLS
• 2012-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2009-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +45.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.