412 Market St · Orange, TX 77630

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 772 Days on market

Built 1930 $25/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity. Located near the Orange Shipyard and Port of Orange, this property is zoned for mixed use, residential or commercial. Lots of possibilities for this great location. Contact today for more information.

Key facts

• Zoned for mixed use
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 772 days

Tags

• LOCATED NEAR ORANGE SHIPYARD
• ZONED FOR MIXED USE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.3% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $596 of equity ($242 loan paydown + $354 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 772 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 772 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.83%
• DSCR: 5.13
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,982
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -62.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $48,672
• Equity at exit: $11,966

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.53×
• Total profit: $122,794
• Equity at exit: $15,916

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $494

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 E Florida St Orange, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	13d	1	0.67mi
1208 DuPont Dr Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	13d	1	0.91mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	43d	1	0.94mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.22mi
305 Rhode Island St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,575	$1.10	13d	1	1.27mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	43d	1	1.34mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	43d	1	1.35mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	43d	1	1.42mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	13d	1	1.45mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 772 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 771 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 770 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 769 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 767 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 766 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 764 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 763 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 762 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 761 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 757 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 756 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 755 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 754 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 753 DOM
16. 2025-10-24
    price $35,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Investor Opportunity. Located near the Orange Shipyard and Port of Orange, this property is zoned for mixed use, residential or commercial. Lots of possibilities for this great location. Contact today for more information.

17. 2025-03-19
    price $39,900 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Investor Opportunity. Located near the Orange Shipyard and Port of Orange, this property is zoned for mixed use, residential or commercial. Lots of possibilities for this great location. Contact today for more information.

18. 2024-10-23
    price $49,900 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Investor Opportunity. Located near the Orange Shipyard and Port of Orange, this property is zoned for mixed use, residential or commercial. Lots of possibilities for this great location. Contact today for more information.

19. 2024-05-08
    listed $55,000 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Investor Opportunity. Located near the Orange Shipyard and Port of Orange, this property is zoned for mixed use, residential or commercial. Lots of possibilities for this great location. Contact today for more information.

20. 2021-03-04
    soldstatus
21. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,003
• After-tax cash flow: $6,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $35,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $39,900 BBOR
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $49,900 BBOR
• 2024-05-08 Listed $55,000 BBOR
• 2021-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,508 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.