4700 Boulder Dr #1303 · Midland, TX 79707

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 981 sqft · Condo public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1980 $535/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $535 HOA
• Built 1980
• Listed 148 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parker El (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 567 students, 52% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,129
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $28,903
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79707

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$535
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4700 Boulder Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,500	$1.82	21d	2	0.01mi
3609 Caldera Blvd Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,599	$1.88	13d	67	0.26mi
4301 Raleigh Ct Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$1,490	$1.94	13d	18	0.40mi
3330 Caldera Blvd #141 Midland, TX	1.0	1.0	621	$1,100	$1.77	44d	1	0.56mi
3316 Caldera Blvd #104 Midland, TX	1.0	1.5	818	$1,450	$1.77	44d	1	0.60mi
3600 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	13d	9	0.81mi
4415 Northcrest Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,594	$1.98	13d	17	0.83mi
2818 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,779	$1.51	13d	16	0.90mi
2811 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	967	$1,396	$1.44	13d	13	0.91mi
4805 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,860	$1.81	13d	18	0.96mi
3417 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,317	$1.48	13d	13	1.03mi
2600 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,326	$1.66	13d	28	1.11mi
3101 Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,285	$1.68	44d	1	1.16mi
2438 Whitmire Blvd Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,275	$1.59	44d	1	1.27mi
5200 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,124	$2.38	13d	24	1.33mi
4715 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	872	$1,514	$1.74	13d	10	1.39mi
5244 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,749	$2.21	13d	34	1.44mi
3200 Bromley Pl Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,644	$1.88	13d	10	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $535 · $6,420/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   price $70,000
3. 2025-12-30
   price $73,000
4. 2025-11-06
   listed $78,000 Active
5. 2015-05-29
   soldstatus
6. 2013-02-06
   soldstatus
7. 2007-02-28
   soldstatus
8. 2006-04-24
   soldstatus
9. 2004-07-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$348/yr (+$29/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − HOA: −$6,420
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,010
• Household income: $99,886
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1919.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.65%
• Current HPI: 198.7489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $70,000 PBBOR
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $73,000 PBBOR
• 2025-11-06 Listed $78,000 PBBOR
• 2015-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.