419 Water Bend Way · Mexico Beach, FL 32410

$405,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $197/sqft · 29% below area Est $573k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Palmer, a home from our Value collection designed to enhance family and friend gatherings with its open living concept. This spacious home boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing ample space for all your needs. As you step into the Palmer, you'll be greeted by the inviting open living room and dining room, creating a warm and welcoming ambiance. Continuing further, you'll discover the well-appointed kitchen and great room, perfect for entertaining and creating lasting memories. The owners' suite is privately located off its own hallway, offering a tranquil retreat. It features an ensuite bathroom and a generously sized walk-in closet, providing both comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Owners suite
• Walk-in closet
• Open living concept

Tags

• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• OWNERS SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Spec home, plan named Palmer
• Exterior features: Address: 419 Water Bend Way, Port Saint Joe, FL 32410

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 2062

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $406k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,442 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.98%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $572,786
• List price: $405,990
• Delta: -29.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-17,329
• Equity at exit: $182,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $31,295
• Equity at exit: $281,332

Cash invested: $113,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32410

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,129
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$507 /mo · $6,090/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-1,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,552

Max offer price $255,427

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,498
• Closing costs: $12,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
264 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	13d	1	0.09mi
231 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	13d	1	0.09mi
260 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,300	$1.58	13d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $405,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,990 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,990 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $405,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $405,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $405,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $405,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $405,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $405,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $405,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $405,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $405,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $405,990 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $405,990 Active 1275-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,742
• − Property taxes: −$6,090
• − Insurance: −$2,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$11,811
• Taxable loss: −$20,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,836
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 499

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 5% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B