637 Catalina · Frazier Park, CA 93225

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1928 6,098 sqft lot Est $258k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash-only fixer opportunity in the heart of Frazier Park! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath property sits on a large lot stretching into the wash and offers beautiful park views in a prime in-town location just one block from the market. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for their next major renovation project. Fully Fenced in yard! A rare highlight of the home is the original 1920s stone fireplace — a unique piece of local character that only a handful of homes in the area still feature today. The existing structure needs significant work, but the location, lot size, historic charm, and setting create incredible potential for the right buyer. Bring your vision and transform th

Key facts

• Park views
• Large lot
• Historic charm

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• PARK VIEWS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• ORIGINAL 1920S STONE FIREPLACE
• HISTORIC CHARM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Rural community with ravines, biking and hiking trails, mountainous terrain, and parks

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/district water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story; Entry at level 1; Facing a park (end of street, right side)
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Cabin-style structure; Corner lot with yard; Rolling terrain; Near public transit; Park nearby; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: All bedrooms located on the main level; Front door entry; One-level layout; Living room fireplace; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frazier Park Elementary (244 students, 76% FRL); El Tejon Elementary (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 189 students, 87% FRL); Frazier Mountain High (math 15% / reading 64%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $165k implies a 725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.55%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3813 Kiwanis	0.26mi	1/1.0 (-1)	843 (-4%)	2mo	$215,000	$255	75
729 N Avalon Trl	0.20mi	2/1.0	793 (-10%)	2mo	$259,000	$327	74
717 Pasadena	0.07mi	2/1.0	958 (+9%)	13mo	$250,000	$261	70
732 San Miguel Trl	0.09mi	2/2.0	956 (+9%)	12mo	$282,000	$295	66
3440 San Carlos	0.35mi	2/1.5	960 (+10%)	1mo	$192,000	$200	65
721 Clay Trl	0.48mi	2/1.0	944 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$260	63
4401 Decator Trl	0.63mi	2/1.0	841 (-4%)	9mo	$218,000	$259	57
4201 Irvon Trl	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	932 (+6%)	11mo	$340,000	$365	56
333 S End Dr	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-1)	757 (-14%)	14mo	$262,500	$347	45
4136 Poplar Trl	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+10%)	20mo	$200,000	$207	41
4404 Alcot Trl	0.64mi	2/1.0	784 (-10%)	16mo	$272,000	$347	39
4520 Ivy Trl	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	938 (+7%)	13mo	$315,000	$336	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,424
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $48,086
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $569	+0% $522	+5% $475	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $372	-5% $447	+0% $522	+5% $597	+10% $671
Rate	-1.0pp $605	-0.5pp $564	base $522	+0.5pp $479	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
921 Center Way Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	45d	1	0.43mi
4136 Poplar Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$2,500	$2.58	0d	1	0.44mi
221 E End Dr Frazier Park, CA	3.0	1.0	911	$2,450	$2.69	0d	1	0.45mi
4312 Decator Trl Frazier Park, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$1,125	$1.34	25d	1	0.56mi
4424 High Trl Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,950	$2.08	0d	1	0.69mi
2801 Johnson Rd #17 Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	672	$1,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $165,000 Active
18. 1996-08-07
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 173.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 12 d/yr ≥88°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $5,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Frazier Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #25253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frazier Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+725.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $165,000 CRMLS
• 1996-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $459 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.