73169 Penn Mill Rd · Covington, LA 70435

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 0.52 ac lot $128/sqft · 34% below area Est $270k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely property features a freshly painted, renovated interior with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on a 1/2 acre lot with a new roof (2024) in "C" flood zone. This open-concept kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and a breakfast area that has additional bar seating. The living room showcases a tray ceiling and overlooks the extensive backyard. The private end suite includes a tray ceiling, large soaking tub, separate shower and a walk-in closet. Laminate wood floors flow throughout the living areas and bedrooms with tile in the kitchen and baths. Enjoy a huge fenced-in backyard with endless possibilities. The home has an alarm and the code will be provided through Showing Time.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Renovated interior
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RENOVATED INTERIOR
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST AREA
• EXTENSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in very good condition; Lot size about 0.52 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built on a slab foundation; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Outside city limits; Oversized lot; Lot dimensions approximately 96 x 76 x 246 x 228

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Granite counters; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms in the home
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Stainless steel appliances; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.83%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,132
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -30.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73120 Penn Mill Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+3%)	1mo	$262,000	$181	85
73104 Penn Mill Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-6%)	3mo	$235,000	$179	77
73749 Amber Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	14mo	$235,000	$156	68
73230 Penn Mill Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	12mo	$255,000	$165	64
15524 Madris Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	14mo	$225,500	$150	63
15553 Madris Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	24mo	$239,500	$159	59
52 Hickory Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+4%)	10mo	$250,000	$172	53
57 Lurline Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+4%)	15mo	$212,900	$146	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,386
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $59,615
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15568 Madris Ln Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,825	$1.14	19d	1	0.17mi
72291 Forest Dr Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 689-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This lovely property features a freshly painted, renovated interior with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on a 1/2 acre lot with a new roof (2024) in "C" flood zone. This open-concept kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and a breakfast area that has additional bar seating. The living room showcases a tray ceiling and overlooks the extensive backyard. The private end suite includes a tray ceiling, large soaking tub, separate shower and a walk-in closet. Laminate wood floors flow throughout the living areas and bedrooms with tile in the kitchen and baths. Enjoy a huge fenced-in backyard with endless possibilities. The home has an alarm and the code will be provided through Showing Time.

3. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $179,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This lovely property features a freshly painted, renovated interior with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on a 1/2 acre lot with a new roof (2024) in "C" flood zone. This open-concept kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and a breakfast area that has additional bar seating. The living room showcases a tray ceiling and overlooks the extensive backyard. The private end suite includes a tray ceiling, large soaking tub, separate shower and a walk-in closet. Laminate wood floors flow throughout the living areas and bedrooms with tile in the kitchen and baths. Enjoy a huge fenced-in backyard with endless possibilities. The home has an alarm and the code will be provided through Showing Time.

4. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
5. 2026-05-08
   status Active
6. 2026-05-07
   status Active
7. 2026-04-29
   listed $189,000 Active
8. 2026-04-28
   listed $189,000 Active
9. 2026-03-17
   price $205,400
10. 2026-03-17
    price $205,400
11. 2026-03-06
    status Active
12. 2026-02-19
    price $210,000
13. 2026-02-19
    price $210,000
14. 2026-02-18
    status Pending
15. 2026-02-14
    listed $189,500 Active
16. 2005-09-12
    soldstatus $128,700
17. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus $128,700
18. 2005-05-04
    listed $129,900
19. 2005-05-04
    listed $129,900
20. 2004-07-22
    soldstatus $122,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$3/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $4,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $6,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $179,000 GSREIN
• 2026-06-16 Listed $179,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $205,400 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $205,400 GSREIN
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $210,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $210,000 GSREIN
• 2026-02-18 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $189,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $128,700 Public Records
• 2005-08-19 Sold (MLS) $128,700 GSREIN
• 2005-05-04 Listed $129,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-05-04 Listed $129,900 GSREIN
• 2004-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.