668 Wrights Creek Rd · Caryville, FL 32427

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1957 0.29 ac lot $106/sqft · 7% above area Est $167k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Caryville, FL, offers a fantastic blend of comfort and convenience. With a spacious master bedroom featuring a modern tile shower, it's perfect for relaxation. The new metal roof adds durability and peace of mind, while the two-car carport ensures ample parking. Strategically located with highway frontage, you're just an hour away from the stunning beaches of Panama City and the vibrant entertainment options in Dothan, Alabama. Plus, outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a mile from the Choctawhatchee River boat ramp, making this property a true gem for those seeking both adventure and tranquility!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Highway frontage
• Two-car carport

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• MODERN TILE SHOWER
• NEW METAL ROOF
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• HIGHWAY FRONTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#898 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $150k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,404 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,187
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -10.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
720 Palmer Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-15%)	23mo	$213,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,409
• Equity at exit: $68,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $65,123
• Equity at exit: $106,474

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32427

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,071/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $148,078

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 346 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 341 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 340 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 339 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    price $149,900 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Caryville, FL, offers a fantastic blend of comfort and convenience. With a spacious master bedroom featuring a modern tile shower, it's perfect for relaxation. The new metal roof adds durability and peace of mind, while the two-car carport ensures ample parking. Strategically located with highway frontage, you're just an hour away from the stunning beaches of Panama City and the vibrant entertainment options in Dothan, Alabama. Plus, outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a mile from the Choctawhatchee River boat ramp, making this property a true gem for those seeking both adventure and tranquility!

17. 2026-01-18
    price $154,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Caryville, FL, offers a fantastic blend of comfort and convenience. With a spacious master bedroom featuring a modern tile shower, it's perfect for relaxation. The new metal roof adds durability and peace of mind, while the two-car carport ensures ample parking. Strategically located with highway frontage, you're just an hour away from the stunning beaches of Panama City and the vibrant entertainment options in Dothan, Alabama. Plus, outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a mile from the Choctawhatchee River boat ramp, making this property a true gem for those seeking both adventure and tranquility!

18. 2025-06-25
    listed $159,000 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Caryville, FL, offers a fantastic blend of comfort and convenience. With a spacious master bedroom featuring a modern tile shower, it's perfect for relaxation. The new metal roof adds durability and peace of mind, while the two-car carport ensures ample parking. Strategically located with highway frontage, you're just an hour away from the stunning beaches of Panama City and the vibrant entertainment options in Dothan, Alabama. Plus, outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being just a mile from the Choctawhatchee River boat ramp, making this property a true gem for those seeking both adventure and tranquility!

19. 2024-12-16
    price $159,900
20. 2024-11-25
    price $164,900
21. 2024-07-27
    price $169,900
22. 2024-06-18
    listed $174,900 Active
23. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
24. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $50,000
25. 2023-04-07
    status Pending
26. 2023-01-19
    price $69,900
27. 2022-10-14
    status Active
28. 2022-09-30
    price $75,900
29. 2022-07-21
    price $79,900
30. 2022-05-27
    status Active
31. 2022-05-25
    status Pending
32. 2022-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,071
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Caryville

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #898
• US rank: #26612

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caryville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 155.4059
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $154,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $159,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $164,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $169,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Listed $174,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-24 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-07 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Price Changed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2022-09-30 Price Changed $75,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $79,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-05-27 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2022-05-25 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $85,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,071 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.