4121 Hemlock Trl · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$440,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1980 0.44 ac lot $241/sqft · 15% below area Est $503k · 13% under $7/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your ideal Pocono escape in the heart of Lake Naomi -- where comfort, privacy, and year-round recreation come together seamlessly. The home offers the perfect balance of relaxed mountain charm and modern convenience, with a spacious 1775sf two story layout. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious great room anchored by a cozy fireplace -- perfect for gathering after a day on the lake or the slopes. The well-appointed kitchen flows easily into the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a generous deck overlooking a peaceful wooded setting, offering privacy and a true escape from city life. Whether you're sipping morning coffee, entertaining in the summer, or enjoying crisp fall evenings, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Naomi is known for. Lower level features a game room with fireplace and laundry room. Located within one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities, Lake Naomi, ownership offers access to world class premier amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, tennis, golf, clubhouse dining, and year-round activities. Just a short drive from major metro areas, this is an easy, stress-free retreat that feels worlds away. Offered fully furnished if desired, this is a move-in ready opportunity to start enjoying the Lake Naomi lifestyle immediately. Community and township are STR friendly. Vacation on your own terms and rent when not using if you desire. Buyer to verify with community details for all access community membership.

Key facts

• Generous deck
• Great room
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS DECK
• PEACEFUL WOODED SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-810/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $428k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $365k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $380,000 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $503,493
• List price: $440,000
• Delta: -12.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4147 Hemlock Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-2%)	9mo	$455,000	$255	76
4202 Hemlock Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,892 (+4%)	1mo	$590,000	$312	75
5505 Cornflower Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,754 (-4%)	3mo	$406,500	$232	70
1161 Deer Run	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-4%)	6mo	$505,000	$287	66
2314 Hillcrest Dr	0.38mi	3/4.5 (-1)	1,802 (-1%)	10mo	$585,000	$325	59
119 Tanglewood Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-9%)	10mo	$687,500	$414	58
181 Long View Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,074 (+14%)	2mo	$625,000	$301	55
2222 Hillcrest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-15%)	12mo	$515,000	$330	52
136 Split Rock Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-2%)	5mo	$457,500	$254	51
264 Tanglewood Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,002 (+10%)	10mo	$483,000	$241	51
221 Little Pond Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-11%)	6mo	$515,000	$317	49
312 Foxglove Pl	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,633 (-11%)	1mo	$499,900	$306	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-75,524
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-70,998
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$572 /mo · $6,861/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,885

Max offer price $428,072

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2236 Hillcrest Dr Pocono Pines, PA	3.0	2.5	2068	$3,800	$1.84	44d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $440,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $440,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $440,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $440,000 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    Welcome to your ideal Pocono escape in the heart of Lake Naomi -- where comfort, privacy, and year-round recreation come together seamlessly. The home offers the perfect balance of relaxed mountain charm and modern convenience, with a spacious 1775sf two story layout. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious great room anchored by a cozy fireplace -- perfect for gathering after a day on the lake or the slopes. The well-appointed kitchen flows easily into the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a generous deck overlooking a peaceful wooded setting, offering privacy and a true escape from city life. Whether you're sipping morning coffee, entertaining in the summer, or enjoying crisp fall evenings, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Naomi is known for. Lower level features a game room with fireplace and laundry room. Located within one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities, Lake Naomi, ownership offers access to world class premier amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, tennis, golf, clubhouse dining, and year-round activities. Just a short drive from major metro areas, this is an easy, stress-free retreat that feels worlds away. Offered fully furnished if desired, this is a move-in ready opportunity to start enjoying the Lake Naomi lifestyle immediately. Community and township are STR friendly. Vacation on your own terms and rent when not using if you desire. Buyer to verify with community details for all access community membership.

15. 2026-04-04
    price $450,000 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    Welcome to your ideal Pocono escape in the heart of Lake Naomi -- where comfort, privacy, and year-round recreation come together seamlessly. The home offers the perfect balance of relaxed mountain charm and modern convenience, with a spacious 1775sf two story layout. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious great room anchored by a cozy fireplace -- perfect for gathering after a day on the lake or the slopes. The well-appointed kitchen flows easily into the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a generous deck overlooking a peaceful wooded setting, offering privacy and a true escape from city life. Whether you're sipping morning coffee, entertaining in the summer, or enjoying crisp fall evenings, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Naomi is known for. Lower level features a game room with fireplace and laundry room. Located within one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities, Lake Naomi, ownership offers access to world class premier amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, tennis, golf, clubhouse dining, and year-round activities. Just a short drive from major metro areas, this is an easy, stress-free retreat that feels worlds away. Offered fully furnished if desired, this is a move-in ready opportunity to start enjoying the Lake Naomi lifestyle immediately. Community and township are STR friendly. Vacation on your own terms and rent when not using if you desire. Buyer to verify with community details for all access community membership.

16. 2026-03-05
    status Active 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    Welcome to your ideal Pocono escape in the heart of Lake Naomi -- where comfort, privacy, and year-round recreation come together seamlessly. The home offers the perfect balance of relaxed mountain charm and modern convenience, with a spacious 1775sf two story layout. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious great room anchored by a cozy fireplace -- perfect for gathering after a day on the lake or the slopes. The well-appointed kitchen flows easily into the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a generous deck overlooking a peaceful wooded setting, offering privacy and a true escape from city life. Whether you're sipping morning coffee, entertaining in the summer, or enjoying crisp fall evenings, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Naomi is known for. Lower level features a game room with fireplace and laundry room. Located within one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities, Lake Naomi, ownership offers access to world class premier amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, tennis, golf, clubhouse dining, and year-round activities. Just a short drive from major metro areas, this is an easy, stress-free retreat that feels worlds away. Offered fully furnished if desired, this is a move-in ready opportunity to start enjoying the Lake Naomi lifestyle immediately. Community and township are STR friendly. Vacation on your own terms and rent when not using if you desire. Buyer to verify with community details for all access community membership.

17. 2026-02-28
    listed $460,000 Active 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    Welcome to your ideal Pocono escape in the heart of Lake Naomi -- where comfort, privacy, and year-round recreation come together seamlessly. The home offers the perfect balance of relaxed mountain charm and modern convenience, with a spacious 1775sf two story layout. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious great room anchored by a cozy fireplace -- perfect for gathering after a day on the lake or the slopes. The well-appointed kitchen flows easily into the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a generous deck overlooking a peaceful wooded setting, offering privacy and a true escape from city life. Whether you're sipping morning coffee, entertaining in the summer, or enjoying crisp fall evenings, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Naomi is known for. Lower level features a game room with fireplace and laundry room. Located within one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities, Lake Naomi, ownership offers access to world class premier amenities including lakes, beaches, pools, tennis, golf, clubhouse dining, and year-round activities. Just a short drive from major metro areas, this is an easy, stress-free retreat that feels worlds away. Offered fully furnished if desired, this is a move-in ready opportunity to start enjoying the Lake Naomi lifestyle immediately. Community and township are STR friendly. Vacation on your own terms and rent when not using if you desire. Buyer to verify with community details for all access community membership.

18. 2022-02-07
    soldstatus $365,000
19. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus $365,000 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Property is Under Contract and considering back-up offers only at this time. ' CHARMING CONTEMPORARY tucked away in the woods is waiting for you in beautiful Lake Naomi. THIS 4 BED/ 2 Bath Open Concept home features large family room with stone faced- fireplace, oversized glass sliders lead to deck area with beautiful views of nature, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more! Excellent opportunity for a vacation home or full time living! Close to all major Pocono attractions, I 380 & 80. Schedule your private showing today!

20. 2021-10-22
    listed $389,900 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Property is Under Contract and considering back-up offers only at this time. ' CHARMING CONTEMPORARY tucked away in the woods is waiting for you in beautiful Lake Naomi. THIS 4 BED/ 2 Bath Open Concept home features large family room with stone faced- fireplace, oversized glass sliders lead to deck area with beautiful views of nature, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and more! Excellent opportunity for a vacation home or full time living! Close to all major Pocono attractions, I 380 & 80. Schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,861 · $572/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,907 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$6,861
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,648
• − Management: −$3,648
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$8,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,989
• After-tax cash flow: $1,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+12.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $440,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $450,000 PMAR
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-02-28 Listed $460,000 PMAR
• 2022-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) $365,000 PMAR
• 2021-10-22 Listed $389,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,861 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.