12 Avenue B · Johnson City, NY 13790

$60,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

REO-owned bank foreclosure. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath townhouse listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.5% vs local median 6.2% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.84%
• DSCR: 4.69
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $117,106
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.6%
• Equity multiple: 19.63×
• Total profit: $312,921
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13790

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $1,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,180	+0% $1,160	+5% $1,139	+10% $1,118
Rent	-10% $1,002	-5% $1,081	+0% $1,160	+5% $1,238	+10% $1,317
Rate	-1.0pp $1,190	-0.5pp $1,175	base $1,160	+0.5pp $1,144	+1.0pp $1,128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-19
   price $60,000
3. 2025-10-08
   listed $140,000 Active
4. 2022-01-28
   soldstatus $80,000
5. 2005-04-11
   soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $13,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,308
• After-tax cash flow: $10,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615900
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,514
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5545
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #3739

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, NY
• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• City population: 18,739
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,739
• Household income: $59,045
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.06%
• Current HPI: 285.3668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.47%
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+155.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $60,000 GBAOR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $140,000 GBAOR
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,825 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.