585 25 1/2 Rd #125 · Grand Junction, CO 81505

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Manufactured public records · 216 Days on market

Built 2016 $680/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare find. Clean and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom floor plan with central air, 2-car carport stays. Across from Pomona school. 2016 double-wide manufactured home in the Paradise Valley mobile home park. Well cared for home with beautiful front deck and 10 x 10 storage shed. Lots of trees in back to provide shade during the summer.

Key facts

• Big trees
• Fenced in
• Covered wood deck

Tags

• FENCED IN
• BIG TREES
• STORAGE SHED
• FLAGSTONE PATIO
• COVERED WOOD DECK
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Monthly HOA fee covers cable TV, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Asphalt composition roof; Built as a single-story (manufactured/mobile home)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road; Barbed wire and partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pomona Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 347 students, 44% FRL); West Middle School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #121 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 316 students, 34% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,460
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
585 25 1/2 Rd #212	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	6mo	$56,000	$46	76
585 25 1/2 Rd #81	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	10mo	$75,000	$62	75
585 25 1/2 Rd #207	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	10mo	$75,000	$62	73
585 25 1/2 Rd #221	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	18mo	$76,500	$63	69
585 25 1/2 Rd #140	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	14mo	$80,000	$66	66
585 25 1/2 Rd #27	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-13%)	24mo	$91,500	$80	54
585 25 1/2 Rd #189	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	20mo	$105,000	$91	54
830 Independent Ave #3	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	13mo	$125,000	$112	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,597
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,346
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81505

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $217	+0% $180	+5% $143	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $98	+0% $180	+5% $262	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $213	base $180	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
638 Clearwater Ct Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,295	$1.56	22d	1	0.66mi
2461 F 1/4 Rd #611 Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,900	$1.56	22d	1	0.69mi
2454 Window Rock Ln Unit 632 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.0	981	$1,960	$2.00	14d	1	0.78mi
615 Balanced Rock Way Grand Junction, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,030	$2.14	14d	25	0.78mi
623 Balanced Rock Way Unit 231 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,145	$1.92	22d	1	0.82mi
108 Park Dr Unit 1 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,250	$1.22	14d	1	0.84mi
2482 Wolcott Ave Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,350	$1.38	22d	1	0.91mi
2492 Brookwillow Loop Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	22d	1	1.05mi
2459 Theresea Ln Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.5	1368	$1,800	$1.32	22d	1	1.14mi
656 Market St Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,847	$2.27	14d	1	1.33mi
687 E 1/2 Rd Grand Junction, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,152	$2.16	14d	8	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    price $129,900
19. 2026-04-27
    price $132,500
20. 2026-02-03
    price $137,500
21. 2025-11-17
    listed $142,500 Active
22. 2019-07-03
    soldstatus $80,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Rare find. Clean and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom floor plan with central air, 2-car carport stays. Across from Pomona school. 2016 double-wide manufactured home in the Paradise Valley mobile home park. Well cared for home with beautiful front deck and 10 x 10 storage shed. Lots of trees in back to provide shade during the summer.

23. 2019-06-18
    listed $82,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Rare find. Clean and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath. Split bedroom floor plan with central air, 2-car carport stays. Across from Pomona school. 2016 double-wide manufactured home in the Paradise Valley mobile home park. Well cared for home with beautiful front deck and 10 x 10 storage shed. Lots of trees in back to provide shade during the summer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$167/yr (+$14/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$125
• After-tax cash flow: $2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Grand Junction

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #2222

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Junction, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 113,583
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 13,279
• Household income: $90,830
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.12%
• Current HPI: 294.4896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+58.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $129,900 GJARA
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $132,500 GJARA
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $137,500 GJARA
• 2025-11-17 Listed $142,500 GJARA
• 2019-07-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GJARA
• 2019-06-18 Listed $82,000 GJARA

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +173.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.