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830 Modesto Dr
D- Composite 39.63
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.9/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.1/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +1.3/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$310,000

830 Modesto Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 5,401 sqft lot 2-car garage $118/sqft · 14% below area Est $362k · 14% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This Winedale family home from Meratage Homes features a front porch with brick and stone accents, a covered patio, EVP flooring throughout many downstairs areas, a water softener, and solar panels. There is a large gameroom and media room upstairs. Located in the acclaimed Fort Bend ISD, Glendale Lakes offers easy access to nearby dining, entertainment, and retail, with major employment centers such as the Houston Medical Center, Galleria, and Hobby Airport all just a short drive away. With a neighborhood elementary school, you'll relax knowing the kids don't have to travel far.

Key facts

  • Water softener
  • Front porch
  • Covered patio

Tags

FRONT PORCHCOVERED PATIOEVP FLOORINGWATER SOFTENERSOLAR PANELSLARGE GAMEROOM

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (28.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (13.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $221k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $221,063 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.87%
Cap rate
4.60%
Cash-on-cash
-6.04%
DSCR
0.73
GRM
9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$361,814
List price
$310,000
Delta
-14.32%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
7215 Wilshire Ct 0.12mi 4/2.5 2,336 (-11%) 2mo $335,000 $143 72
7302 Toluca Dr 0.24mi 4/3.5 2,864 (+9%) 2mo $309,120 $108 67
1223 Rosemead Dr 0.28mi 4/2.5 2,350 (-10%) 3mo $318,000 $135 65
1006 Cotswold Ct 0.62mi 4/2.5 2,501 (-5%) 4mo $310,000 $124 58
7106 Escondido Dr 0.33mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,396 (-9%) 8mo $280,000 $117 56
6915 Sunnyvale Ln 0.59mi 4/3.5 2,501 (-5%) 5mo $295,000 $118 54
7923 Cattlewood Pass 0.74mi 4/2.0 2,460 (-6%) 1mo $293,000 $119 54
7230 Toluca Dr 0.22mi 5/4.0 (+1) 2,938 (+12%) 7mo $349,000 $119 51
1127 Curly Angora Ct 0.50mi 4/3.0 2,261 (-14%) 0mo $328,000 $145 49
6814 Ventura Dr 0.46mi 5/4.0 (+1) 2,844 (+8%) 8mo $335,000 $118 45
6418 Kentfield Dr 0.72mi 4/2.5 2,348 (-11%) 6mo $307,995 $131 42
507 Marley Oak Dr 0.69mi 4/3.0 2,261 (-14%) 5mo $319,900 $141 36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-31.9%
Equity multiple
-0.02×
Total profit
$-88,700
Equity at exit
$46,222
10-year hold
IRR
-59.9%
Equity multiple
-0.65×
Total profit
$-143,426
Equity at exit
$26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
47 active · 19 under contract
Months of supply
13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$310,000 ($141/sqft)
Median days on market
52 d
This list price
49% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1736
Price-to-rent
9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,682 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,626
Tax from tax record
$755 /mo · $9,061/yr
Insurance
$129
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$46
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$563
Net cashflow
$-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,319
Max offer price $221,063
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-328 -5% $-416 +0% $-503 +5% $-591 +10% $-679
Rent -10% $-715 -5% $-609 +0% $-503 +5% $-398 +10% $-292
Rate -1.0pp $-347 -0.5pp $-425 base $-503 +0.5pp $-584 +1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$77,500
Closing costs
$9,300
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
7215 Victorville Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2152 $2,326 $1.08 5d 1 0.09mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1764 $1,970 $1.12 18d 1 0.29mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 2004 $2,200 $1.10 139d 1 0.32mi
1315 Gorman Ln Rosharon, TX 5.0 2.5 2700 $2,700 $1.00 30d 1 0.48mi
6927 Ventura Dr Rosharon, TX 5.0 4.0 2771 $3,300 $1.19 139d 1 0.48mi
1107 Curly Angora Ct Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2061 $2,400 $1.16 40d 1 0.49mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2492 $2,850 $1.14 120d 1 0.53mi
7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1835 $2,500 $1.36 11d 1 0.62mi
7915 Murciana Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2045 $2,400 $1.17 11d 1 0.71mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2512 $2,550 $1.02 114d 1 0.97mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,830 $1.54 59d 1 1.02mi
8011 Ecru Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2426 $2,230 $0.92 4d 1 1.03mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,300 $1.25 139d 1 1.17mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX 5.0 2.5 2506 $2,550 $1.02 139d 1 1.18mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2588 $2,650 $1.02 139d 1 1.19mi
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,125 $1.16 24d 1 1.24mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX 5.0 3.0 2200 $2,500 $1.14 139d 1 1.25mi
8223 Wainwright Way Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2172 $2,340 $1.08 42d 1 1.27mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX 3.0 3.0 1924 $2,400 $1.25 139d 1 1.43mi
414 Manor Ave Arcola, TX 4.0 2.0 1796 $2,500 $1.39 31d 1 1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Homeowners association managed by Principle MgtAnnual association fee of $550

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Leased security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features
Fenced backyardSubdivision lotConcrete road frontage

Interior

Kitchen
Gas cooktopGas ovenDishwasherMicrowaveKitchen islandGranite countersWalk-in pantryDisposal
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 16x14Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 12x11Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 12x10Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 12x10Office (first floor) — approx. 13x11Media room (second floor) — approx. 12x11Game room (second floor) — approx. 16x15
Flooring
CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features
Insulated doorsDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboSeparate showerWalk-in pantryWindow treatments / coveringsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWater softener (owned)Disposal
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupWater softener (owned)

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 34 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $310,000 Active 33 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 32 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 31 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $310,000 Active 29 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 28 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $310,000 Active 27 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $310,000 Active 26 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $310,000 Active 24 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 23 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $310,000 Active 22 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $310,000 Active 21 DOM
  15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 19 DOM
  16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 18 DOM
  17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
  18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $310,000 Active 16 DOM
  19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
  20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
  21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
  22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
  23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
  24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 9 DOM
  25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $310,000 Active 8 DOM
  26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
  27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
  28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
  29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
  30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
  31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
  32. 2026-08-13
    remarks 586-char remark
  33. 2026-08-13
    days on marketlisting id $310,000 Active 1 DOM
  34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $310,000 Active 162 DOM
  35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $310,000 Active 161 DOM
  36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $310,000 Active 160 DOM
  37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 159 DOM
  38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 158 DOM
  39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 156 DOM
  40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 155 DOM
  41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 154 DOM
  42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 153 DOM
  43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 150 DOM
  44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 148 DOM
  45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $310,000 Active 147 DOM
  46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $310,000 Active 145 DOM
  47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 143 DOM
  48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,000 Active 142 DOM
  49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 141 DOM
  50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$9,061 · $755/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$9,061 · $755/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,186
− Mortgage interest
−$17,365
− Property taxes
−$9,061
− Insurance
−$2,348
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,575
− Management
−$2,575
− HOA
−$552
− Depreciation
−$9,018
Taxable loss
−$11,307
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,714
After-tax cash flow
$-3,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,130–$39,390 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Arcola, TX, offers a good condition with modern updates and a good location. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance
  • Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score
65/100
State rank
#701
US rank
#13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+8.9% since first listed
14 events — show timeline
  • 2026-08-12 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-08-12 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-03-25 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-03-03 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-03-03 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-06 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
  • 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2021-04-23 Pending HARMLS
  • 2021-03-17 Price Changed $305,665 HARMLS
  • 2021-03-02 Price Changed $300,665 HARMLS
  • 2021-02-17 Price Changed $295,665 HARMLS
  • 2021-02-09 Price Changed $292,665 HARMLS
  • 2021-02-01 Price Changed $289,665 HARMLS
  • 2021-01-14 Listed $284,665 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,061 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…