830 Modesto Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583

$310,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,401 sqft lot $118/sqft · 17% below area Est $375k · 17% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Winedale family home from Meratage Homes features a front porch with brick and stone accents, a covered patio, EVP flooring throughout many downstairs areas, a water softener, and solar panels. Located in the acclaimed Fort Bend ISD, Glendale Lakes offers easy access to nearby dining, entertainment, and retail, with major employment centers such as the Houston Medical Center, Galleria, and Hobby Airport all just a short drive away. With a neighborhood elementary school, you'll relax knowing the kids don't have to travel far.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Front porch
• Covered patio

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COVERED PATIO
• EVP FLOORING
• WATER SOFTENER
• SOLAR PANELS
• ACCLAIMED FORT BEND ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,972 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,594
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -17.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7215 Wilshire Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,336 (-11%)	0mo	$335,000	$143	74
1223 Rosemead Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-10%)	2mo	$318,000	$135	66
918 Pismo Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,880 (+10%)	7mo	$350,000	$122	64
1006 Cotswold Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,501 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$124	59
7106 Escondido Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,396 (-9%)	7mo	$280,000	$117	57
6915 Sunnyvale Ln	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,501 (-5%)	4mo	$295,000	$118	56
7230 Toluca Dr	0.22mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,938 (+12%)	5mo	$349,000	$119	52
6603 Lenwood Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,544 (-3%)	8mo	$364,840	$143	48
6814 Ventura Dr	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,844 (+8%)	6mo	$335,000	$118	46
6606 Lenwood Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,764 (+5%)	7mo	$384,090	$139	46
6418 Kentfield Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-11%)	4mo	$307,995	$131	44
507 Marley Oak Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,261 (-14%)	3mo	$319,900	$141	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-80,681
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-126,753
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $314,900 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 42 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$755 /mo · $9,061/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,235

Max offer price $243,972

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-198	-5% $-286	+0% $-374	+5% $-462	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-483	+0% $-374	+5% $-265	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-218	-0.5pp $-295	base $-374	+0.5pp $-454	+1.0pp $-536

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,070	$1.17	12d	1	0.29mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	93d	1	0.32mi
6927 Ventura Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	4.0	2771	$3,300	$1.19	93d	1	0.48mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	73d	1	0.53mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	68d	1	0.97mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	12d	1	1.02mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	93d	1	1.17mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	93d	1	1.18mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	93d	1	1.19mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	93d	1	1.25mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	93d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $310,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $310,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $310,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $310,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $310,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $310,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $310,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $310,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $310,000 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $310,000 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $310,000 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $310,000 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $310,000 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $310,000 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $310,000 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $310,000 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 113 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 110 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,000 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $310,000 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,000 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 102 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 98 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 96 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 93 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 92 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 91 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,061 · $755/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,061 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$9,061
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,652
• − Management: −$2,652
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$9,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,130–$39,390 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Arcola, TX, offers a good condition with modern updates and a good location. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Price Changed $305,665 HARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Price Changed $300,665 HARMLS
• 2021-02-17 Price Changed $295,665 HARMLS
• 2021-02-09 Price Changed $292,665 HARMLS
• 2021-02-01 Price Changed $289,665 HARMLS
• 2021-01-14 Listed $284,665 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,061 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.