15171 Sunny Day Dr · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$329,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · Townhouse public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 2,400 sqft lot Est $333k · at est. $389/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to your dream lifestyle in the heart of Lakewood Ranch! This stunning two-story townhome perfectly captures the essence of Florida living with a serene water view that greets you the moment you step toward your screened lanai. The main floor features a seamless kitchen and living room combination, creating an inviting open-concept space perfect for hosting friends or enjoying quiet evenings at home. Upstairs, you will find a thoughtful layout where all three bedrooms reside, offering a private retreat from the main living areas. This home also includes a convenient one-car garage equipped with an

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Hot tub
• Open-concept space

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• SCREENED LANAI
• OPEN-CONCEPT SPACE
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• LAP LANE POOL
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees listed as $4,672; total monthly fees listed as $389.33
• Financial info: CDD assessed on property; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; association approval required; Monthly HOA approximately $237.67 (quarterly fee shown as $713); Association covers 24-hour guard, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves; Community amenities: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: 24-hour guard (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Irrigation with reclaimed water (community)
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; Faces south; Entry level: Two-level design
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Pond view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $329k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-521/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $329k).
• Recommended offer: $309k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,025
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15183 Lyla Ter	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	4mo	$336,000	$175	92
14717 Lyla Ter	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	6mo	$333,000	$173	91
15247 Sunny Day Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,887 (-2%)	3mo	$325,000	$172	91
15164 Sunny Day Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	10mo	$320,000	$166	91
15127 Lyla Ter	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	6mo	$297,500	$155	90
15233 Lyla Ter	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	6mo	$300,000	$156	90
14820 Lyla Ter	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,925 (0%)	7mo	$305,000	$158	88
15147 Sunny Day Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,887 (-2%)	9mo	$350,000	$185	88
15147 Lyla Ter	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,887 (-2%)	6mo	$330,000	$175	87
15242 Sunny Day Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,879 (-2%)	7mo	$340,000	$181	87
14756 Lyla Ter	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,879 (-2%)	8mo	$310,000	$165	84
5307 Calypso Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,200 (+14%)	2mo	$501,000	$228	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-65,805
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-98,381
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,099/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$389
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,493

Max offer price $321,324

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $50	+0% $-43	+5% $-137	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-179	+0% $-43	+5% $92	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $40	base $-43	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15035 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,950	$1.57	25d	1	0.04mi
15126 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	25d	1	0.04mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	12d	1	0.07mi
14775 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	21d	1	0.07mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	17d	1	0.09mi
14776 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$4,500	$2.39	25d	1	0.10mi
15228 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,000	$1.56	25d	1	0.15mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	25d	1	0.20mi
15018 Oxford Grey Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$5,500	$2.71	25d	1	0.20mi
5510 Tidal Breeze Cv Unit 5510 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,495	$2.47	25d	1	0.23mi
5537 Tidal Breeze Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	0.30mi
15721 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$6,500	$4.11	25d	1	0.39mi
5210 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,975	$1.81	25d	1	0.39mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	25d	1	0.42mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	23d	1	0.43mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	0.43mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	25d	1	0.44mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	25d	1	0.45mi
15021 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$8,500	$3.48	25d	1	0.46mi
5307 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1557	$3,000	$1.93	25d	1	0.47mi
5319 White Sand Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,850	$2.01	25d	1	0.57mi
16020 Sunny Day Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$3,500	$2.48	25d	1	0.58mi
15934 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	25d	1	0.62mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	0.67mi
15167 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,500	$2.25	25d	1	0.68mi
15957 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,750	$1.77	25d	1	0.69mi
14484 59th Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2340	$3,300	$1.41	25d	1	0.71mi
5818 143rd Ct E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,795	$1.39	13d	1	0.72mi
15982 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$4,600	$2.94	5d	1	0.72mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	0.76mi
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,775	$1.82	17d	1	0.79mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	17d	1	0.80mi
5819 Oak Bridge Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$2,850	$1.40	16d	1	0.80mi
14339 59th Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2340	$2,900	$1.24	25d	1	0.81mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.83mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$9,850	$4.18	25d	1	0.85mi
14367 59th Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.85mi
13823 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,950	$1.93	25d	2	0.85mi
15019 Skip Jack Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.5	2012	$2,600	$1.29	25d	1	0.86mi
15019 Skip Jack Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.5	2012	$2,600	$1.29	23d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $389 · $4,668/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $329,000 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-04-02
   listed $330,000 Active
7. 2026-03-14
   historical $3,000
8. 2026-02-13
   listed $3,000
9. 2026-01-31
   historical $3,000
10. 2025-12-30
    listed $3,000
11. 2025-12-10
    historical $3,000
12. 2025-11-09
    listed $3,000
13. 2024-12-07
    historical $2,950
14. 2024-11-07
    listed $2,950
15. 2024-04-23
    historical $3,100
16. 2024-04-11
    listed $3,100
17. 2024-04-10
    historical $3,100
18. 2024-03-13
    listed $3,100
19. 2024-03-13
    historical $3,100
20. 2024-03-02
    price $3,100
21. 2024-02-18
    listed $3,250
22. 2023-05-18
    historical
23. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $26,078,286

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,099 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,099 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$6,099
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,301
• − Management: −$3,301
• − HOA: −$4,668
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$5,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,381
• After-tax cash flow: $860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Lakewood Ranch offers a serene water view and a modern open-concept floor plan, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and energy efficiency.
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and energy efficiency. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-01-31 Rental Removed $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-30 Listed for Rent $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-10 Rental Removed $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-09 Listed for Rent $3,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-07 Rental Removed $2,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $2,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $3,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-04-11 Listed for Rent $3,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $3,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $3,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Rental Removed $3,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $3,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-02-18 Listed for Rent $3,250 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-05-18 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,078,286 Public Records

Property tax history

+47.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,099 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.