515 Burgett St · Forney, TX 75126

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 6,098 sqft lot Est $264k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-located home in the heart of Forney offering a rare, oversized lot of approximately one-third acre. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and strong potential for personalization or updates to add value. Conveniently located near major roads, shopping, and local amenities, this home offers both accessibility and a quiet residential feel.

Key facts

• Accessibility
• Functional layout
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• ACCESSIBILITY
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL FEEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: No second mortgage reported; Special listing condition: Real Estate Owned
• HOA & community: No HOA / association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 carport space); Driveway
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: City sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story
• Construction: Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.14 acre); Subdivision: Forney Rev

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Attic fan; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Cable TV available; Two living areas; One dining area; Two total rooms (in addition to bedrooms/bathrooms)
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-174/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,156 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 N Mcgraw St	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,800 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$136	72
530 Elm St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (+5%)	5mo	$319,990	$187	71
534 Elm St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (+5%)	5mo	$319,990	$187	71
305 W Trinity St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-2%)	2mo	$259,900	$162	70
914 Royal St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-3%)	4mo	$249,000	$157	63
123 Stanford	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+0%)	2mo	$285,000	$174	62
908 York St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-4%)	5mo	$230,000	$147	58
920 York St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-4%)	2mo	$299,000	$191	58
107 Vassar St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+2%)	6mo	$269,000	$162	57
505 Southlake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	3mo	$229,900	$147	52
418 Bowie St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-8%)	3mo	$275,000	$182	51
124 Stanford	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	4mo	$235,000	$158	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-38,011
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-46,429
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,263/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $207,432

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $45	+0% $-15	+5% $-74	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-95	+0% $-15	+5% $66	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $39	base $-15	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	5d	1	0.03mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.20mi
905 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	45d	1	0.52mi
920 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	6d	1	0.58mi
511 Brazos St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,945	$1.24	9d	1	0.59mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	9d	1	0.62mi
308 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,965	$1.32	5d	1	0.64mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,723	$1.34	45d	1	0.68mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,913	$1.49	8d	1	0.68mi
907 Alpine St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,810	$1.39	45d	1	0.69mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	9d	1	0.69mi
611 Orchard Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1540	$2,000	$1.30	24d	1	0.72mi
603 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,805	$1.46	26d	1	0.73mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	0.75mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	19d	1	0.75mi
404 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.75mi
509 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,299	$1.99	14d	1	0.76mi
300 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	5d	1	0.78mi
416 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,950	$1.41	22d	1	0.78mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	1d	1	0.82mi
121 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	13d	1	0.82mi
416 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,799	$1.42	5d	1	0.83mi
604 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	4d	1	0.89mi
413 Redbud Dr Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.90mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	36	0.94mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	1d	1	0.94mi
616 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,950	$1.29	45d	1	0.94mi
501 Branch St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,270	$1.07	1d	1	0.97mi
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	26d	1	0.98mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	30	0.98mi
502 Ponderosa Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2131	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.99mi
511 Rosewood Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,070	$1.09	24d	1	1.04mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	19d	1	1.15mi
105 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	1.18mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	1.20mi
105 Fieldwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,400	$1.32	22d	1	1.22mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	20d	1	1.24mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.29mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	1.30mi
308 Chinaberry Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 412-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,263 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,263 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$5,263
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$866
• After-tax cash flow: $691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+302.7% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $286,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-22 Rental Removed $1,650 NTREIS
• 2025-01-12 Listed for Rent $1,650 NTREIS
• 2025-01-12 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-01-01 Rental Removed $1,650 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $1,650 NTREIS
• 2024-11-28 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-23 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2003-11-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-01-22 Listed $52,150 NTREIS
• 2001-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,263 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.