11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #64 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 456 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition $76/sqft · 17% below area Est $66k · 17% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Winter Visitor's Delight—Lovingly Updated & Move-In Ready! This cozy 1993 Palm Harbor With 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, has been beautifully refreshed in 2020—featuring a new roof, renovated bathroom, updated flooring, dual pane windows, fresh interior paint, and a welcoming front deck. The bright eat-in kitchen offers stunning mountain views, while the spacious living room provides a relaxing retreat after a day in the sun. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort and flexibility. Whether you're here for the season or longer, this well-maintained home is ready for you to enjoy Arizona living at its best.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Eat in kitchen
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED FRONT DECK
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.35%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,484
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -17.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #350	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	23mo	$35,000	$45	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $27,855
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $62,366
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $652	+0% $633	+5% $614	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $583	+0% $633	+5% $684	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $647	base $633	+0.5pp $619	+1.0pp $605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$1,025	$1.62	25d	4	0.79mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$962	$1.52	4d	3	0.79mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	45d	4	0.79mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	20d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,165	$2.05	3d	5	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,175	$2.07	6d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd #175 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,198	$2.14	45d	1	0.93mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,983	$2.12	0d	1	1.35mi
12717 W Amy Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	4.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	45d	1	1.44mi
12717 W Amy Dr Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	3.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	45d	1	1.44mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 456 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 453 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 452 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 451 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 450 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 448 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 444 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 443 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 442 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 439 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 438 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 437 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 436 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 435 DOM
15. 2025-09-10
    price $55,000 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Winter Visitor's Delight—Lovingly Updated & Move-In Ready! This cozy 1993 Palm Harbor With 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, has been beautifully refreshed in 2020—featuring a new roof, renovated bathroom, updated flooring, dual pane windows, fresh interior paint, and a welcoming front deck. The bright eat-in kitchen offers stunning mountain views, while the spacious living room provides a relaxing retreat after a day in the sun. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort and flexibility. Whether you're here for the season or longer, this well-maintained home is ready for you to enjoy Arizona living at its best.

16. 2025-07-24
    status Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Winter Visitor's Delight—Lovingly Updated & Move-In Ready! This cozy 1993 Palm Harbor With 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, has been beautifully refreshed in 2020—featuring a new roof, renovated bathroom, updated flooring, dual pane windows, fresh interior paint, and a welcoming front deck. The bright eat-in kitchen offers stunning mountain views, while the spacious living room provides a relaxing retreat after a day in the sun. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort and flexibility. Whether you're here for the season or longer, this well-maintained home is ready for you to enjoy Arizona living at its best.

17. 2025-06-09
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Winter Visitor's Delight—Lovingly Updated & Move-In Ready! This cozy 1993 Palm Harbor With 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, has been beautifully refreshed in 2020—featuring a new roof, renovated bathroom, updated flooring, dual pane windows, fresh interior paint, and a welcoming front deck. The bright eat-in kitchen offers stunning mountain views, while the spacious living room provides a relaxing retreat after a day in the sun. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort and flexibility. Whether you're here for the season or longer, this well-maintained home is ready for you to enjoy Arizona living at its best.

18. 2025-03-22
    listed $65,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Winter Visitor's Delight—Lovingly Updated & Move-In Ready! This cozy 1993 Palm Harbor With 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, has been beautifully refreshed in 2020—featuring a new roof, renovated bathroom, updated flooring, dual pane windows, fresh interior paint, and a welcoming front deck. The bright eat-in kitchen offers stunning mountain views, while the spacious living room provides a relaxing retreat after a day in the sun. Both bedrooms are generously sized for comfort and flexibility. Whether you're here for the season or longer, this well-maintained home is ready for you to enjoy Arizona living at its best.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $7,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,716
• After-tax cash flow: $5,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listed $65,000 ARMLS