91403 Kellogg Ln · Coos Bay, OR 97420

$88,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 499 sqft · Manufactured · 137 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $177/sqft · 38% above area Est $64k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to Downsize? This deluxe tiny home is a great opportunity for you to enjoy all the necessary amenities in a small package. This is a 2023 Fleetwood with many upgrades, stacking washer/dryer, built in microwave, laminate flooring, two electric fireplaces, three tv's and a loft with an inflatable bed. This home is completely furnished and move-in ready. Mid Way RV park is a premier park with lots of amenities, cordial tenants and may social activities through out the year. A great place to call home.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Built in microwave
• Move in ready

Tags

• STACKING WASHER DRYER
• BUILT IN MICROWAVE
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACES
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.2% in Coos Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#257 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $612 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.08%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,106
• List price: $88,500
• Delta: 38.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $18,952
• Equity at exit: $13,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $81,833
• Equity at exit: $7,652

Cash invested: $24,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97420

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $88,500

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $445	+0% $415	+5% $384	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $363	+0% $415	+5% $466	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $437	base $415	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,125
• Closing costs: $2,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $88,500 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,500 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,500 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,500 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,500 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,500 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,500 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,500 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,500 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,500 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,500 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,500 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,500 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,500 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,500 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,500 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    listed $88,500 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Ready to Downsize? This deluxe tiny home is a great opportunity for you to enjoy all the necessary amenities in a small package. This is a 2023 Fleetwood with many upgrades, stacking washer/dryer, built in microwave, laminate flooring, two electric fireplaces, three tv's and a loft with an inflatable bed. This home is completely furnished and move-in ready. Mid Way RV park is a premier park with lots of amenities, cordial tenants and may social activities through out the year. A great place to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥74°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$2,575
• Taxable income: $3,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $4,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready tiny home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for downsizing with all necessary amenities and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coos Bay SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4103660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,630
• Composite: 25.46/100
• National rank: #7450
• State rank: #45 of 58 in OR

Livability — Coos Bay

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #17474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Coos County · 27,621 people
• City population: 27,621
• Metro: Coos Bay, OR
• Population (ZIP): 27,621
• Household income: $61,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 799.0

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,222 people
• By 2030: 61,120 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 58,478 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 56,819 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 54,915 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 51,403 · -17.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.58%
• Current HPI: 198.3249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Metro: Coos Bay, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $88,500 RMLS