291 Halifax Ln · Chelsea, AL 35043

$354,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,969 sqft lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $367k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Penwell is a two-story plan with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms in 2,164 square feet. The main level features a flex room adjacent to the foyer, ideal for a formal dining room or home office. The gourmet kitchen has an oversized island for extra seating and a large pantry, and it opens to the dining area and a spacious living room. Bedroom One is on the second level and offers a private bathroom, double vanities and a large walk-in closet. There are 3 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in laundry room. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Large pantry
• Private bathroom

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• LARGE PANTRY
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Oaks Elementary School (math 44% / reading 63%, grade C, #99 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 683 students, 27% FRL); Chelsea Middle School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade D, #39 of 257 statewide, top 16%, 951 students, 28% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,150
• List price: $354,900
• Delta: -3.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Halifax Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,164 (0%)	0mo	$354,900	$164	100
601 Fish Camp Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	1mo	$424,900	$187	81
593 Fish Camp Rd	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	1mo	$404,900	$178	80
598 Fish Camp Rd	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	1mo	$429,900	$189	79
292 Halifax Ln	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (-7%)	2mo	$366,400	$182	78
606 Fish Camp Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	2mo	$421,900	$186	78
614 Fish Camp Rd	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	2mo	$429,400	$189	78
728 Empire Ave	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	2mo	$409,900	$180	74
736 Empire Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+5%)	2mo	$420,000	$185	72
505 Foggy Brook Loop	0.18mi	4/3.0	1,941 (-10%)	2mo	$359,900	$185	71
713 Empire Ave	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,400 (+11%)	1mo	$422,900	$176	69
311 Halifax Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	2mo	$339,900	$180	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-67,640
• Equity at exit: $52,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-71,757
• Equity at exit: $30,685

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35043

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,324/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,153

Max offer price $331,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $-38	+0% $-160	+5% $-283	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-277	+0% $-160	+5% $-44	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-70	base $-160	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
283 Halifax Ln Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,950	$1.31	45d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Penwell is a two-story plan with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms in 2,164 square feet. The main level features a flex room adjacent to the foyer, ideal for a formal dining room or home office. The gourmet kitchen has an oversized island for extra seating and a large pantry, and it opens to the dining area and a spacious living room. Bedroom One is on the second level and offers a private bathroom, double vanities and a large walk-in closet. There are 3 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in laundry room. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

2. 2026-04-07
   price $354,900 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Penwell is a two-story plan with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms in 2,164 square feet. The main level features a flex room adjacent to the foyer, ideal for a formal dining room or home office. The gourmet kitchen has an oversized island for extra seating and a large pantry, and it opens to the dining area and a spacious living room. Bedroom One is on the second level and offers a private bathroom, double vanities and a large walk-in closet. There are 3 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in laundry room. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $359,900 Active 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Penwell is a two-story plan with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms in 2,164 square feet. The main level features a flex room adjacent to the foyer, ideal for a formal dining room or home office. The gourmet kitchen has an oversized island for extra seating and a large pantry, and it opens to the dining area and a spacious living room. Bedroom One is on the second level and offers a private bathroom, double vanities and a large walk-in closet. There are 3 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a walk-in laundry room. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$5,324
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable loss: −$8,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,925
• After-tax cash flow: $4/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed. The property has a good curb appeal and interior finishes, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 15,068

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.08%
• Current HPI: 205.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $354,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $359,900 Greater Alabama MLS