106 Manning Way · Elon, NC 27244

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $269k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADORABLE 4BR HOME IN ELON! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT! EAT IN KITCHEN-OPEN TO SPACIOUS DEN W/VAULTED CEILING & LAMINATE FLOORING! LUXURY MBA W/SOAKING TUB, SEPARATE SHOWER AND DUAL VANITIES!OVERSIZED DECK FOR ENTERTAINING! LARGE LOT W/STORAGE SHED!

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Soaking tub
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DEN
• VAULTED CEILING
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• LUXURY MASTER BATH
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($924/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Elon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#17 in NC, #1,573 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $275k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,938 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
609 Danieley Way	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-3%)	2mo	$268,000	$214	85
805 Jennings Berry Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$228,900	$195	75
413 James Toney Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-7%)	9mo	$250,000	$208	68
409 James Toney Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (-6%)	10mo	$238,000	$197	68
407 James Toney Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (+6%)	21mo	$256,000	$187	61
817 Park Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+2%)	0mo	$220,000	$167	60
302 Slate Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,262 (-2%)	11mo	$285,000	$226	56
305 Slate Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,255 (-3%)	11mo	$280,000	$223	55
326 Slate Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-4%)	11mo	$259,000	$210	55
105 Graphite Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (+4%)	15mo	$284,500	$212	50
104 Claystone Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (+11%)	2mo	$280,000	$196	46
207 Sullivan Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,410 (+9%)	21mo	$236,000	$167	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,771
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-28,781
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27244

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $155	+0% $77	+5% $-1	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-10	+0% $77	+5% $164	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $147	base $77	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Graphite Dr Gibsonville, NC	3.0	2.5	1465	$2,095	$1.43	15d	1	0.63mi
206 N Wyrick St Gibsonville, NC	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,610	$1.55	23d	1	0.74mi
515 Burlington Ave Gibsonville, NC	3.0	1.0	962	$1,450	$1.51	23d	1	0.86mi
694 Huntingdon St Elon, NC	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,750	$1.26	23d	1	0.91mi
133 Westover Dr Elon, NC	4.0	3.0	1378	$2,500	$1.81	23d	1	1.43mi
122 Westview Dr Elon, NC	3.0	1.5	1500	$3,570	$2.38	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 309-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,010/yr (+$84/mo · 81.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $1,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Elon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #1573

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elon, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 16,329
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 16,329
• Household income: $75,323
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.54%
• Current HPI: 219.7859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+131.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $275,000 FSBO.com
• 2016-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-13 Sold (MLS) $114,000 TMLS
• 2016-04-13 Sold (MLS) $114,000 AMLSNC
• 2016-04-13 Sold (MLS) $114,000 Triad MLS
• 2016-02-26 Listed $119,000 TMLS
• 2016-02-26 Listed $119,000 AMLSNC
• 2016-02-26 Listed $119,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,245 · -39.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.