647 San Simeon Pl · Chestnut Hill, PA 18040

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $253k · at est. ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable home located in Jacob's Farms Senior Living Community. Senior living, with style! One of the larger floor plans, very clean and in move-in ready condition. Spacious living areas in the living room and family room. Kitchen is large, updated and functional. All the flooring is in like-new condition. Home features (2) spacious bedrooms and (2) full bathrooms. Extra-large driveway with a (1) one car attached garage. Garage has the extended length upgrade and is heated/cooled. Abundant natural light fills the four-seasons Sunroom, which is also heated/cooled. Economic GAS utilities. Newer Water Heater and Washer/Dryer. HOA includes basketball, tennis court, playset area and a clubhouse, perfect for family gatherings. Generous parking options when entertaining guests and family. Fantastic community, adored by residents who live here. Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• Heated cooled garage
• Four-seasons sunroom
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FOUR-SEASONS SUNROOM
• EXTENDED LENGTH GARAGE
• HEATED COOLED GARAGE
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUS PARKING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Chestnut Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Easton Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #364 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,784
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Kykuit Pl	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$164	92
550 Biltmore Ave	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,732 (+1%)	8mo	$280,000	$162	89
715 San Simeon Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-2%)	18mo	$226,000	$135	77
677 Biltmore Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	23mo	$195,000	$114	76
719 Winterthur	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,708 (0%)	24mo	$214,400	$126	74
678 Kykuit Pl	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,475 (-14%)	1mo	$240,500	$163	74
720 Whitemarsh Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,595 (-7%)	11mo	$305,000	$191	74
608 Biltmore	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,498 (-12%)	14mo	$208,000	$139	64
600 Biltmore Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,508 (-12%)	23mo	$205,000	$136	58
719 Kykuit Pl	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,452 (-15%)	22mo	$214,900	$148	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,110
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,581
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18040

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,114/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $358	+0% $288	+5% $217	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $185	+0% $288	+5% $390	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $351	base $288	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Trailside Dr Easton, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$2,775	$2.59	3d	27	0.69mi
2465 Gillian Ln Easton, PA	3.0	2.5	2075	$2,300	$1.11	15d	1	1.36mi
1924 Alex Rd Easton, PA	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,600	$1.96	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-03-28
   soldstatus $245,000 Sold 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   Adorable home located in Jacob's Farms Senior Living Community. Senior living, with style! One of the larger floor plans, very clean and in move-in ready condition. Spacious living areas in the living room and family room. Kitchen is large, updated and functional. All the flooring is in like-new condition. Home features (2) spacious bedrooms and (2) full bathrooms. Extra-large driveway with a (1) one car attached garage. Garage has the extended length upgrade and is heated/cooled. Abundant natural light fills the four-seasons Sunroom, which is also heated/cooled. Economic GAS utilities. Newer Water Heater and Washer/Dryer. HOA includes basketball, tennis court, playset area and a clubhouse, perfect for family gatherings. Generous parking options when entertaining guests and family. Fantastic community, adored by residents who live here. Call today for a private showing.

2. 2025-02-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   Adorable home located in Jacob's Farms Senior Living Community. Senior living, with style! One of the larger floor plans, very clean and in move-in ready condition. Spacious living areas in the living room and family room. Kitchen is large, updated and functional. All the flooring is in like-new condition. Home features (2) spacious bedrooms and (2) full bathrooms. Extra-large driveway with a (1) one car attached garage. Garage has the extended length upgrade and is heated/cooled. Abundant natural light fills the four-seasons Sunroom, which is also heated/cooled. Economic GAS utilities. Newer Water Heater and Washer/Dryer. HOA includes basketball, tennis court, playset area and a clubhouse, perfect for family gatherings. Generous parking options when entertaining guests and family. Fantastic community, adored by residents who live here. Call today for a private showing.

3. 2025-02-04
   status Pending 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   Adorable home located in Jacob's Farms Senior Living Community. Senior living, with style! One of the larger floor plans, very clean and in move-in ready condition. Spacious living areas in the living room and family room. Kitchen is large, updated and functional. All the flooring is in like-new condition. Home features (2) spacious bedrooms and (2) full bathrooms. Extra-large driveway with a (1) one car attached garage. Garage has the extended length upgrade and is heated/cooled. Abundant natural light fills the four-seasons Sunroom, which is also heated/cooled. Economic GAS utilities. Newer Water Heater and Washer/Dryer. HOA includes basketball, tennis court, playset area and a clubhouse, perfect for family gatherings. Generous parking options when entertaining guests and family. Fantastic community, adored by residents who live here. Call today for a private showing.

4. 2025-01-23
   listed $249,900 Active 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   Adorable home located in Jacob's Farms Senior Living Community. Senior living, with style! One of the larger floor plans, very clean and in move-in ready condition. Spacious living areas in the living room and family room. Kitchen is large, updated and functional. All the flooring is in like-new condition. Home features (2) spacious bedrooms and (2) full bathrooms. Extra-large driveway with a (1) one car attached garage. Garage has the extended length upgrade and is heated/cooled. Abundant natural light fills the four-seasons Sunroom, which is also heated/cooled. Economic GAS utilities. Newer Water Heater and Washer/Dryer. HOA includes basketball, tennis court, playset area and a clubhouse, perfect for family gatherings. Generous parking options when entertaining guests and family. Fantastic community, adored by residents who live here. Call today for a private showing.

5. 2024-12-26
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2024-12-14
   historical
7. 2024-12-09
   price $279,900
8. 2024-11-27
   price $299,000
9. 2024-11-21
   listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,114 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,114 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,114
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,485
• − Management: −$2,485
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $3,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Easton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208850
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,390
• Composite: 33.46/100
• National rank: #5457
• State rank: #364 of 539 in PA

Livability — Chestnut Hill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,183

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8% Black 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.10%
• Current HPI: 190.2081
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-28 Sold (MLS) $245,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-02-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-04 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $249,900 GLVRMLS
• 2024-12-26 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-14 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $279,900 GLVRMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $299,000 GLVRMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $315,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,114 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.