LEXINGTON Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$299,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 404 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• 3-bay garage
• Island kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO
• 3-BAY GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,291.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $263,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,291
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -16.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-3%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	81
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,804 (+1%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	76
13220 Harbor Point Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+2%)	1mo	$354,990	$195	76
3026 Banyan Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	72
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+8%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	71
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	64
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	58
13016 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,963 (+10%)	0mo	$312,990	$159	58
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-8%)	1mo	$284,900	$174	57
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-9%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	57
13705 Sorico Bay Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-8%)	0mo	$268,400	$164	51
13009 Oleander Bay Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	0mo	$325,000	$159	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-79,338
• Equity at exit: $53,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-88,218
• Equity at exit: $31,238

Cash invested: $101,162 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,895
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,419/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,161

Max offer price $308,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-243	+0% $-368	+5% $-493	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-474	+0% $-368	+5% $-261	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-276	base $-368	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,323
• Closing costs: $10,839
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.49mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	23d	1	0.95mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	1.01mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.07mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	5d	2	1.12mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	0d	21	1.17mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	6d	1	1.23mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	12d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 404 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 401 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 400 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 399 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 398 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 387 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 386 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 385 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 384 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 383 DOM
15. 2025-07-20
    price $412,990 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

16. 2025-05-13
    listed $299,990 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

17. 2025-03-06
    status Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

18. 2025-03-03
    historical 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

19. 2024-11-24
    price $472,990 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

20. 2024-09-18
    price $490,990 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

21. 2024-09-11
    listed $489,990 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    The two-story Lexington is well suited for larger families. This multi-functional plan showcases a first-floor owner's suite, an outdoor covered patio, an expansive great room, and a charming gourmet kitchen. Nearby flex space or an optional study provides ideal space for a home office, and an additional private bedroom and full bath is perfect for hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,238
• − Property taxes: −$5,419
• − Insurance: −$1,806
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − Depreciation: −$10,510
• Taxable loss: −$10,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,595
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Lexington home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is well-suited for larger families and offers a spacious open-concept design. Minor cosmetic updates such as painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $412,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-13 Listed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-03-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-24 Price Changed $472,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $490,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-11 Listed $489,990 Zillow