209 W Miracle Strip Pkwy Unit D208 · Mary Esther, FL 32569

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Condo public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1974 $156/sqft · 32% below area Est $148k · 32% under $580/mo HOA · 36% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short-term rentals are permitted! The Cedars is a waterfront condo complex perfectly situated near Emerald Coast beaches and offers easy access to Hurlburt Field, Eglin AFB, shopping, dining, and entertainment. Amenities include a waterfront pool, dock, picnic area, community room, laundry facilities, elevators, and a kayak rack with complimentary storage.

Key facts

• Laundry facilities
• Picnic area
• Dock

Tags

• WATERFRONT CONDO COMPLEX
• WATERFRONT POOL
• DOCK
• PICNIC AREA
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Short-term rentals allowed; Pets allowed; Subdivision: CEDARS CONDO
• HOA & community: Association-managed community; HOA covers grounds maintenance, insurance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, and water; Fees include accounting, grounds keeping, insurance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water, and master association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condo unit; Built in 1974; One-story unit within a 3-story building
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Community pool; Waterfront property with dock; BBQ pit/grill; Community room; Dumpster; Fishing access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (second level)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Window treatments; Living room (second level); Dining area (second level); Kitchen (second level)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (community laundry listed under community features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($139/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Mary Esther — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#2 in FL, #137 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annette P. Edwins Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 453 students, 80% FRL); Fort Walton Beach High School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,620 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $100k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,789
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -32.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-19,771
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-32,887
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,283/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $40	+0% $12	+5% $-17	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-52	+0% $12	+5% $75	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $37	base $12	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Page Bacon Rd Mary Esther, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,827	$1.77	14d	18	0.81mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $109,000 Active 358-char remark
17. 2024-07-23
    price $129,000
18. 2024-06-17
    listed $139,000 Active
19. 2020-09-01
    historical
20. 2020-08-29
    status Active
21. 2020-08-09
    status Pending
22. 2020-08-09
    historical
23. 2020-08-07
    listed $119,700 Active
24. 2020-08-06
    listed $119,700
25. 2019-04-26
    soldstatus $63,000
26. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus $63,000
27. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus $63,000
28. 2019-04-01
    listed $79,900
29. 2018-07-13
    historical
30. 2018-04-20
    listed $75,000
31. 2018-04-20
    listed $75,000
32. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $48,500
33. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $48,500
34. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $48,500
35. 2016-03-14
    listed $48,500
36. 2008-11-15
    historical
37. 2008-08-01
    listed $85,000
38. 2008-08-01
    listed $85,000
39. 2007-10-23
    historical
40. 2007-01-08
    listed $95,000
41. 2007-01-08
    listed $95,000
42. 2006-12-01
    historical
43. 2005-09-30
    listed $125,000
44. 2005-09-30
    listed $125,000
45. 2005-09-29
    historical
46. 2005-06-27
    listed $140,000
47. 2005-06-27
    listed $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,283 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,283 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,283
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mary Esther

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #137

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mary Esther, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $99,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $109,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $129,000 ECAR
• 2024-06-17 Listed $139,000 ECAR
• 2020-09-01 Delisted — ECAR
• 2020-08-29 Relisted — ECAR
• 2020-08-09 Pending — ECAR
• 2020-08-09 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2020-08-07 Listed $119,700 ECAR
• 2020-08-06 Listed $119,700 NAMLS
• 2019-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-24 Sold (MLS) $63,000 ECAR
• 2019-04-24 Sold (MLS) $63,000 NAMLS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $79,900 NAMLS
• 2018-07-13 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2018-04-20 Listed $75,000 ECAR
• 2018-04-20 Listed $75,000 NAMLS
• 2016-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $48,500 NAMLS
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $48,500 ECAR
• 2016-03-14 Listed $48,500 NAMLS
• 2008-11-15 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listed $85,000 NAMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listed $85,000 ECAR
• 2007-10-23 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $95,000 NAMLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $95,000 ECAR
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2005-09-30 Listed $125,000 NAMLS
• 2005-09-30 Listed $125,000 ECAR
• 2005-09-29 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $140,000 NAMLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $140,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,283 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.