3143 Shirley Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1957 0.32 ac lot $29/sqft · at area comps Est $47k · at est. ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bed 2 bath home ready for new owners. A little tlc and this will be a beauty.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.98%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,060
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -4.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Woody Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-6%)	2mo	$59,000	$40	85
3143 Revere St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-2%)	5mo	$37,250	$24	83
953 Woody Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,595 (+2%)	3mo	$5,900	$4	82
2813 Marydale Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-4%)	2mo	$34,999	$23	69
3156 Woodview Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,409 (-10%)	4mo	$65,000	$46	65
2971 Kentwood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-2%)	3mo	$59,900	$39	60
1423 Woody Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-10%)	2mo	$24,900	$18	56
1136 Killarney St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+3%)	2mo	$45,500	$28	55
1636 Smallwood St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (-8%)	1mo	$17,000	$12	53
3148 Sylvester Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	1mo	$59,500	$41	49
2646 Revere St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-13%)	0mo	$30,000	$22	45
3409 Meadow Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$17,900	$13	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $30,243
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.34×
• Total profit: $79,669
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,639/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $579

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	44d	1	0.03mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	14d	1	0.03mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	14d	1	0.05mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	44d	1	0.10mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	44d	1	0.11mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	0.23mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.24mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.24mi
3049 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	44d	1	0.32mi
1219 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,150	$1.09	23d	1	0.33mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	23d	1	0.34mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.35mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	44d	1	0.42mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.45mi
3308 Ramona St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	21d	1	0.55mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	0.56mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	14d	1	0.59mi
3511 Sykes Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,426	$1.16	14d	1	0.64mi
103 Sykes Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.73mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	0.73mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	0.73mi
360 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1624	$1,575	$0.97	14d	1	0.75mi
1010 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,050	$0.92	14d	1	0.78mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	23d	1	0.80mi
1018 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$900	$0.85	23d	1	0.80mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	23d	1	0.80mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	0.81mi
1054 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,050	$0.93	14d	1	0.87mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	23d	1	0.88mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	0.88mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	14d	1	0.89mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	44d	1	0.89mi
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	44d	1	0.91mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	0.93mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	0.93mi
267 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1165	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	0.97mi
3341 Suncrest Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	44d	1	0.97mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	1.08mi
270 Wildwood Ct Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.13mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $44,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $44,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $44,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-04-02
   price $44,900 84-char remark

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Cute 3 bed 2 bath home ready for new owners. A little tlc and this will be a beauty.

7. 2026-03-05
   listed $74,900 Active 84-char remark

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Cute 3 bed 2 bath home ready for new owners. A little tlc and this will be a beauty.

8. 2024-08-14
   historical
9. 2024-07-18
   listed $55,000 Active
10. 2024-07-01
    historical
11. 2024-05-17
    price $55,000
12. 2024-03-15
    price $67,000
13. 2024-02-24
    listed $75,000 Active
14. 2022-03-02
    historical
15. 2021-12-15
    price $84,000
16. 2021-10-21
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2021-10-08
    historical
18. 2021-10-02
    historical
19. 2010-03-19
    soldstatus
20. 2010-03-19
    soldstatus
21. 2009-09-04
    listed $75,000
22. 2008-11-30
    listed $75,000
23. 2008-05-14
    listed $84,900
24. 1994-04-29
    soldstatus
25. 1964-05-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,639
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $5,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-47.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $44,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-05 Listed $74,900 MLSU
• 2024-08-14 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-07-18 Listed $55,000 MLSU
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $55,000 MLSU
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $67,000 MLSU
• 2024-02-24 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-12-15 Price Changed $84,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-21 Listed $89,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2010-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-09-04 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2008-11-30 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2008-05-14 Listed $84,900 MLSU
• 1994-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1964-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,639 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.