2801 Pine St · Rock Falls, IL 61071

$99,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 91 Days on market

Built 1953 0.46 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

Key facts

• Deep lot
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious dining room

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• DEEP LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in an unincorporated area (Montmorency township); Directions: From E Rock Falls Rd. turn onto Pine Street — single level home with tall trees.
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Natural gas available; Electric service (central air uses electricity)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Single-story (single level); Fee simple ownership; Estimated living area; Built before 1978; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 200; Lot between 0.25 and 0.49 acre; Well water; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Family room; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (5 x 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.9% in Rock Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#607 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rock Falls Twp Hsd 301 (town): math 10% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #726 of 919 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Falls Township High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 566 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,082
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $25,530
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61071

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,451/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $314	+0% $286	+5% $257	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $233	+0% $286	+5% $339	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $311	base $286	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $99,900 Contingent - Continue to Show 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $114,900
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $124,900 Active
18. 2026-02-19
    historical
19. 2025-12-03
    price
20. 2025-08-05
    listed Auction
21. 2023-09-26
    soldstatus $129,900
22. 2023-09-19
    soldstatus $129,900 Closed 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

23. 2023-07-14
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

24. 2023-06-26
    status Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

25. 2023-06-23
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

26. 2023-06-20
    listed $129,900 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    4 Bedroom ranch in Montmorency School District! Newer kitchen, baths, roof, flooring, paint, water heater, light fixtures, 6 panel doors. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Main floor laundry. Located on a half acre on the outskirts of town. Broker owned.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,451
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rock Falls Twp Hsd 301
• NCES district ID: 1734380
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,851
• Composite: 19.86/100
• National rank: #13891
• State rank: #726 of 919 in IL

Livability — Rock Falls

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #12541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,482

Population outlook (Whiteside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,736 people
• By 2030: 51,657 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 47,169 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 42,613 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 32,691 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 22,638 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Whiteside

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.7% · R 56.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.37%
• Current HPI: 142.0179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $114,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $124,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2023-09-19 Sold (MLS) $129,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-14 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-26 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-23 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Listed $129,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,451 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.