8539 Robin Ave · St. Louis, MO 63147

$57,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1910 9,600 sqft lot $89/sqft · 18% above area Est $49k · 18% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move in ready 2 bedroom home just passed occupancy and is ready for its new owner. 2 car all brick detached garage and spacious private front yard on nearly a quarter acre. The house has new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and a remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances. Other recent updates include paint and doors and an updated bathroom. Plenty of storage in the full height walk out basement. Great starter house or turn key cash flowing rental.

Key facts

• 9,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($873 rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $400 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $58k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.39%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,040
• List price: $57,900
• Delta: 18.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5626 Vivian Pl	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (+8%)	10mo	$20,000	$28	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $12,448
• Equity at exit: $8,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $38,895
• Equity at exit: $5,006

Cash invested: $16,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63147

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $439

Max offer price $57,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,475
• Closing costs: $1,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8612 Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$775	$1.24	4d	2	0.38mi
1131 Canaan Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	624	$900	$1.44	16d	1	0.62mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt C St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	43d	1	1.00mi
819 Gustav Ave Unit 832 B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	43d	1	1.00mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	23d	1	1.00mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	43d	1	1.06mi
5635 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$899	$1.55	20d	1	1.19mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	1.32mi
849 River Trail Ct #102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	23d	1	1.39mi
849 River Trail Ct Apt 201 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $57,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $57,900 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    This move in ready 2 bedroom home just passed occupancy and is ready for its new owner. 2 car all brick detached garage and spacious private front yard on nearly a quarter acre. The house has new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and a remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances. Other recent updates include paint and doors and an updated bathroom. Plenty of storage in the full height walk out basement. Great starter house or turn key cash flowing rental.

15. 2026-02-18
    listed $59,900 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    This move in ready 2 bedroom home just passed occupancy and is ready for its new owner. 2 car all brick detached garage and spacious private front yard on nearly a quarter acre. The house has new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and a remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances. Other recent updates include paint and doors and an updated bathroom. Plenty of storage in the full height walk out basement. Great starter house or turn key cash flowing rental.

16. 2026-02-12
    historical $59,900 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    This move in ready 2 bedroom home just passed occupancy and is ready for its new owner. 2 car all brick detached garage and spacious private front yard on nearly a quarter acre. The house has new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and a remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances. Other recent updates include paint and doors and an updated bathroom. Plenty of storage in the full height walk out basement. Great starter house or turn key cash flowing rental.

17. 2021-03-25
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 2008-02-15
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2007-02-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 149.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,243
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$838
• − Management: −$838
• − Depreciation: −$1,684
• Taxable income: $3,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$806
• After-tax cash flow: $3,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,173
• Household income: $41,182
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 92% White 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.51%
• Current HPI: 84.224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $57,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $225 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.