2806 Spa Dr · Deer Park, TX 77536

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1967 7,318 sqft lot Est $268k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

Key facts

• Local commerce
• Spacious kitchen
• Community park

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY PARK
• LOCAL COMMERCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main living spaces on first level)
• Construction: Built in 1967; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Cleared lot in a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first level); Bedroom sizes approximately 11 x 11, 12 x 11, and primary 15 x 13
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-209/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jp Dabbs El (math 45% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 616 students, 61% FRL); Bonnette J H (math 44% / reading 41%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 724 students, 58% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,916 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,924
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2806 Spa Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,614 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$118	99
2810 Spa Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+6%)	3mo	$299,999	$176	87
2709 Wisdom Dr	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$220,000	$140	85
214 Tudor Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+1%)	2mo	$270,000	$166	78
2818 Spa Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+10%)	3mo	$215,000	$121	74
501 Arbor Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-9%)	3mo	$245,000	$166	66
1010 Wisdom Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-6%)	2mo	$295,000	$195	64
7406 W Lambuth Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,473 (-9%)	2mo	$265,000	$180	63
601 Wisdom Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+12%)	3mo	$299,000	$165	59
509 Kimswick Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+13%)	3mo	$310,000	$170	56
717 Arbor Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+12%)	0mo	$239,900	$133	55
730 Columbia Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	3mo	$235,000	$157	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,159
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,391
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$473 /mo · $5,680/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $186,916

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $36	+0% $-17	+5% $-71	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-94	+0% $-17	+5% $59	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $31	base $-17	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1300	$1,906	$1.47	0d	26	0.46mi
401 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,090	$2.01	0d	20	0.48mi
510 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,476	$1.31	45d	1	0.51mi
800 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$2,510	$2.60	0d	17	0.52mi
401 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,585	$1.69	7d	13	0.58mi
722 E Brown Ln Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,844	$1.37	26d	1	0.59mi
7201 Spencer Hwy Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,600	$1.73	45d	18	0.74mi
7878 Spencer Hwy Unit 7911 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,374	$1.15	0d	1	0.96mi
6565 Spencer Hwy Unit 6598 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,594	$1.33	0d	1	0.97mi
8406 Beechaven Rd La Porte, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,300	$1.26	3d	1	1.28mi
8406 Beechaven Rd Unit NA La Porte, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,300	$1.26	7d	1	1.28mi
1817 New Orleans St Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,240	$1.25	26d	1	1.38mi
1803 Weeping Oaks Pasadena, TX	3.0	3.0	1833	$1,895	$1.03	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2026-03-14
   historical $2,099
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $2,099
5. 2016-08-03
   soldstatus
6. 2016-08-01
   soldstatus Sold 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

7. 2016-07-21
   status Pending 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

8. 2016-07-16
   status Option Pending 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

9. 2016-07-11
   price $156,000 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

10. 2016-06-29
    status Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

11. 2016-06-08
    status Pending, Continue to Show 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

12. 2016-05-29
    status Option Pending 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

13. 2016-05-11
    listed $157,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lovely 3/2/2 house in the desirable neighborhood. High ceiling in living room. Replaced items including roof, pipes in the attic, A/C, D/W and disposal. French door leads to a large enclosed patio. Laminated wood flooring and plush carpet in bedrooms. Double panned windows. Sprinkler systems in the front yard. Two covered carport on double driveway.

14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,680 · $473/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,680 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$5,680
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$782
• After-tax cash flow: $573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,099 Tricon
• 2026-03-13 Listed for Rent $2,099 Tricon
• 2016-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-11 Price Changed $156,000 HARMLS
• 2016-06-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listed $157,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,680 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.