4719 Rivertree Ln · Houston, TX 77388

$175,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1981 7,200 sqft lot $175/sqft · 12% below area Est $200k · 12% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hard to find cozy 2-bedroom home has spacious living/dining combination, fresh paint, and new carpet in bedrooms with tile in the rest of house. Some of the shower tile will be replaced. The backyard is fully fenced for your pets and children to play in. If you are tired of apartment life or looking for your first home, take a tour today!

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roth El (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 788 students, 65% FRL); Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,303 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,107
• List price: $175,900
• Delta: -12.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4719 Rivertree Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$175,900	$175	99
4630 Roserock Ln	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$175,000	$174	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-39,437
• Equity at exit: $26,227

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-59,828
• Equity at exit: $15,209

Cash invested: $49,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,508/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $157,872

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-52	+0% $-102	+5% $-152	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-163	+0% $-102	+5% $-41	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-57	base $-102	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,975
• Closing costs: $5,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4703 Fleming Downe Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	26d	1	0.37mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,088	$1.28	14d	1	0.55mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,721	$1.59	21d	42	0.55mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,513	$1.15	14d	1	0.55mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 2047 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,572	$1.20	5d	1	0.55mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 1174 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,129	$1.33	0d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 4931 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,187	$1.40	14d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 324 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,099	$1.30	9d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 422 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,548	$1.18	9d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,548	$1.18	7d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 1162 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,099	$1.30	7d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 2112 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,532	$1.17	0d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 2174 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,583	$1.21	12d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 4947 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,572	$1.20	12d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 4931 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,138	$1.34	12d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 2228 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,573	$1.20	0d	1	0.56mi
4910 Spring Cypress Rd Unit 1228 Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,088	$1.28	0d	1	0.56mi
4916 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,650	$1.30	45d	1	0.62mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	45d	1	0.62mi
19101 Kuykendahl Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,607	$1.75	0d	20	0.64mi
20525 Ella Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,934	$2.19	0d	10	0.84mi
3789 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,589	$1.41	14d	1	0.89mi
4576 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,275	$1.13	45d	1	1.04mi
4545 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,226	$1.09	0d	9	1.12mi
21000 Gosling Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1112	$1,760	$1.58	0d	23	1.12mi
4114 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,146	$2.22	0d	23	1.14mi
21006 Gosling Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,611	$1.38	45d	1	1.15mi
19300 Ella Blvd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,599	$1.31	14d	1	1.23mi
3656 Postwood Dr Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	759	$1,290	$1.70	45d	1	1.26mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,994	$1.92	0d	29	1.28mi
5222 Farm to Market 2920 Unit SOSG Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,548	$1.32	14d	1	1.28mi
18501 Carrot St Unit CACC Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,320	$1.38	14d	1	1.28mi
4115 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$1,677	$1.86	0d	17	1.28mi
18439 Kuykendahl Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,447	$1.36	45d	1	1.30mi
3869 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,774	$1.68	26d	1	1.31mi
3899 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,796	$1.56	14d	1	1.32mi
5498 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,419	$1.46	26d	1	1.37mi
5015 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,360	$1.62	0d	17	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Hard to find cozy 2-bedroom home has spacious living/dining combination, fresh paint, and new carpet in bedrooms with tile in the rest of house. Some of the shower tile will be replaced. The backyard is fully fenced for your pets and children to play in. If you are tired of apartment life or looking for your first home, take a tour today!

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Hard to find cozy 2-bedroom home has spacious living/dining combination, fresh paint, and new carpet in bedrooms with tile in the rest of house. Some of the shower tile will be replaced. The backyard is fully fenced for your pets and children to play in. If you are tired of apartment life or looking for your first home, take a tour today!

3. 2026-04-16
   price $175,900 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Hard to find cozy 2-bedroom home has spacious living/dining combination, fresh paint, and new carpet in bedrooms with tile in the rest of house. Some of the shower tile will be replaced. The backyard is fully fenced for your pets and children to play in. If you are tired of apartment life or looking for your first home, take a tour today!

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $179,900 Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Hard to find cozy 2-bedroom home has spacious living/dining combination, fresh paint, and new carpet in bedrooms with tile in the rest of house. Some of the shower tile will be replaced. The backyard is fully fenced for your pets and children to play in. If you are tired of apartment life or looking for your first home, take a tour today!

5. 1988-05-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,853
• − Property taxes: −$3,508
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,117
• Taxable loss: −$4,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $175,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 1988-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,508 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.