5212 Sherman St · Houston, TX 77011

$324,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,721 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 328 Days on market

Built 2022 1,912 sqft lot $188/sqft · 10% below area Est $361k · 10% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern style meets comfort in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located just minutes from downtown Houston. This partially furnished home features an open-concept living space with sleek finishes, wood-look floors, and abundant natural light. The spacious kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a large island with custom gray cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and modern lighting. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a private balcony, walk-in closet, and a spa-like en-suite bath. The two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or personal space. Enjoy the convenience of an attached two-car garage, low-maintenance yard, and no HOA. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a move-in ready opportunity in a rapidly developing area. Professional Photos are on the Way! But why wait? Schedule a tour today.

Key facts

• 1,912 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (43.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,149/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,415 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,190
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: -10.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5005 Brady St	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,776 (+3%)	0mo	$375,000	$211	80
747 Dumble St	0.39mi	3/3.5	1,744 (+1%)	2mo	$369,990	$212	74
5258 Texas St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,598 (-7%)	8mo	$360,000	$225	70
5011 Walker St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,720 (-0%)	2mo	$299,000	$174	69
5311 Avenue J	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,831 (+6%)	4mo	$279,000	$152	68
5103 Avenue J	0.35mi	3/3.5	1,816 (+6%)	3mo	$399,900	$220	68
5107 Avenue J	0.35mi	3/3.5	1,816 (+6%)	3mo	$369,900	$204	67
703 Dumble St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+5%)	8mo	$500,000	$278	66
137 Eastwood St	0.49mi	3/3.5	1,912 (+11%)	1mo	$369,900	$193	53
125 Eastwood St	0.56mi	3/3.5	1,856 (+8%)	6mo	$399,700	$215	52
4801 Walker St	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,475 (-14%)	6mo	$359,999	$244	51
402 Hunt St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-12%)	4mo	$337,000	$222	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $119,664
• Equity at exit: $291,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $381,351
• Equity at exit: $629,461

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77011

• Home prices YoY: 30.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$659 /mo · $7,911/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $183,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-612	-5% $-704	+0% $-796	+5% $-888	+10% $-979
Rent	-10% $-966	-5% $-881	+0% $-796	+5% $-711	+10% $-626
Rate	-1.0pp $-633	-0.5pp $-713	base $-796	+0.5pp $-880	+1.0pp $-965

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5502 Texas St Unit 1514806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,179	$3.97	0d	1	0.25mi
5504 Texas St Unit 1514810P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,146	$3.95	0d	1	0.26mi
5121 Polk St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.59mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531100P Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1258	$2,285	$1.82	0d	2	0.62mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531107P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1980	$2,327	$1.18	9d	1	0.62mi
2 Jenkins St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,250	$1.81	45d	1	0.63mi
6403 Avenue C Unit 1019625P Houston, TX	2.0–8.0	1.0–4.0	1232	$3,836	$3.11	0d	2	0.66mi
132 N Estelle St Unit 1526930P Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,760	$1.64	9d	1	0.73mi
4411 Dallas St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	734	$2,000	$2.72	0d	14	0.79mi
4009 Lamar St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,699	$1.24	0d	1	1.01mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,220	$2.40	0d	1	1.06mi
960 Villa De Matel Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,129	$1.07	25d	1	1.14mi
1010 S Wayside Dr #101 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,199	$0.86	25d	1	1.31mi
1010 S Wayside Dr #101 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,982	$1.42	45d	1	1.31mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	1.46mi
99 N Delano St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,311	$1.25	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,000 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,000 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,000 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,000 Active 322 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,000 Active 320 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,000 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,000 Active 311 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-01-26
    price $324,000 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Modern style meets comfort in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located just minutes from downtown Houston. This partially furnished home features an open-concept living space with sleek finishes, wood-look floors, and abundant natural light. The spacious kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a large island with custom gray cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and modern lighting. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a private balcony, walk-in closet, and a spa-like en-suite bath. The two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or personal space. Enjoy the convenience of an attached two-car garage, low-maintenance yard, and no HOA. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a move-in ready opportunity in a rapidly developing area. Professional Photos are on the Way! But why wait? Schedule a tour today.

14. 2025-08-12
    status Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Modern style meets comfort in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located just minutes from downtown Houston. This partially furnished home features an open-concept living space with sleek finishes, wood-look floors, and abundant natural light. The spacious kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a large island with custom gray cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and modern lighting. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a private balcony, walk-in closet, and a spa-like en-suite bath. The two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or personal space. Enjoy the convenience of an attached two-car garage, low-maintenance yard, and no HOA. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a move-in ready opportunity in a rapidly developing area. Professional Photos are on the Way! But why wait? Schedule a tour today.

15. 2025-08-05
    status Pending 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Modern style meets comfort in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located just minutes from downtown Houston. This partially furnished home features an open-concept living space with sleek finishes, wood-look floors, and abundant natural light. The spacious kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a large island with custom gray cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and modern lighting. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a private balcony, walk-in closet, and a spa-like en-suite bath. The two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or personal space. Enjoy the convenience of an attached two-car garage, low-maintenance yard, and no HOA. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a move-in ready opportunity in a rapidly developing area. Professional Photos are on the Way! But why wait? Schedule a tour today.

16. 2025-07-21
    listed $349,000 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Modern style meets comfort in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located just minutes from downtown Houston. This partially furnished home features an open-concept living space with sleek finishes, wood-look floors, and abundant natural light. The spacious kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a large island with custom gray cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and modern lighting. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a private balcony, walk-in closet, and a spa-like en-suite bath. The two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or personal space. Enjoy the convenience of an attached two-car garage, low-maintenance yard, and no HOA. Ideal for homeowners or investors seeking a move-in ready opportunity in a rapidly developing area. Professional Photos are on the Way! But why wait? Schedule a tour today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,911 · $659/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,911 · $659/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$7,911
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$15,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,707
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,940
• Household income: $50,133
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 29% White 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 81%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 68.18%
• Current HPI: 295.1198
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $324,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $349,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+82.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,911 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.