18344 Kelly Rd · Detroit, MI 48224

$85,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 847 sqft · Townhouse public records · 509 Days on market

Built 1942 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brick duplex offers a unique investment opportunity with its solid construction and classic appeal. Has a basement that provides additional storage or potential living space, perfect for maximizing rental income or creating a personalized living area. Whether you're an investor looking to expand your portfolio or a homeowner seeking a versatile space, this duplex offers the potential to meet your needs in a desirable and enduring package.

Key facts

• Solid construction
• Brick duplex
• Basement storage

Tags

• BRICK DUPLEX
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SOLID CONSTRUCTION
• BASEMENT STORAGE
• POTENTIAL LIVING SPACE
• RENTAL INCOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 484 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 509 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $85k implies a 2733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 509 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.74%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $19,322
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $50,981
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48224

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 484
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	0.20mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	43d	1	0.26mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	43d	1	0.46mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	0.48mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	0.50mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	43d	1	0.51mi
11235 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,325	$1.25	17d	1	0.65mi
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	0.66mi
19365 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.5	996	$1,650	$1.66	14d	1	0.72mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	0.76mi
16225 Manning St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,475	$1.42	43d	1	0.79mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	0.83mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.93mi
10692 Meuse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	12d	1	0.95mi
10400 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	890	$1,100	$1.24	43d	1	0.97mi
10404 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,475	$1.33	3d	1	0.98mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	3d	1	1.00mi
10370 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.00mi
10985 Peerless St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	5d	1	1.02mi
10177 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	767	$1,250	$1.63	43d	1	1.03mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	1.05mi
10037 Grayton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	1.09mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	24d	1	1.12mi
10141 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,000	$0.90	43d	1	1.21mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	15d	1	1.22mi
10542 Lanark St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,250	$1.22	43d	1	1.22mi
9927 Beaconsfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	942	$1,375	$1.46	15d	1	1.29mi
20461 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,399	$1.27	14d	1	1.29mi
6304 Bluehill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	43d	1	1.44mi
6325 Neff Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Pending 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   This brick duplex offers a unique investment opportunity with its solid construction and classic appeal. Has a basement that provides additional storage or potential living space, perfect for maximizing rental income or creating a personalized living area. Whether you're an investor looking to expand your portfolio or a homeowner seeking a versatile space, this duplex offers the potential to meet your needs in a desirable and enduring package.

2. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
3. 2024-09-05
   listed $85,000 Active 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   This brick duplex offers a unique investment opportunity with its solid construction and classic appeal. Has a basement that provides additional storage or potential living space, perfect for maximizing rental income or creating a personalized living area. Whether you're an investor looking to expand your portfolio or a homeowner seeking a versatile space, this duplex offers the potential to meet your needs in a desirable and enduring package.

4. 2024-09-05
   listed $85,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   This brick duplex offers a unique investment opportunity with its solid construction and classic appeal. Has a basement that provides additional storage or potential living space, perfect for maximizing rental income or creating a personalized living area. Whether you're an investor looking to expand your portfolio or a homeowner seeking a versatile space, this duplex offers the potential to meet your needs in a desirable and enduring package.

5. 2023-10-02
   historical $850
6. 2023-07-22
   price $850
7. 2014-03-05
   soldstatus $3,000
8. 2014-01-29
   historical
9. 2013-10-16
   listed $500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $5,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,668
• Household income: $44,856
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2515.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.38%
• Current HPI: 161.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+2733.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-05 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-05 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-02 Rental Removed $850 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-22 Price Changed $850 REALCOMP
• 2014-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $3,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-16 Listed $500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · -53.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.