9815 Abrams Vw · Converse, TX 78109

$219,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $137/sqft · 8% below area Est $239k · 8% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1440 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,825 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,600
• List price: $219,500
• Delta: -8.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9947 Mather Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	0mo	$220,999	$140	93
2005 Powell Pl	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	0mo	$247,999	$155	93
9722 Besson Blvd	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$251,999	$160	87
9735 Abrams Vw	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	2mo	$215,999	$154	71
10119 Monte Carmel Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-2%)	2mo	$274,630	$174	62
1241 Punta Mita St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-2%)	1mo	$271,190	$172	61
10030 Jagger Ave	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,772 (+11%)	2mo	$254,029	$143	60
2907 Junction Bay	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-6%)	1mo	$299,990	$199	58
10023 Monte Carmel Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-6%)	1mo	$267,320	$177	56
10011 Monte Carmel Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-11%)	0mo	$244,760	$172	48
10115 Monte Carmel Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-11%)	2mo	$254,260	$179	46
10003 Monte Carmel Pl	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,832 (+14%)	0mo	$279,600	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,582
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-34,780
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 93 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,999 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 169 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1440
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $219,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $229	+0% $167	+5% $105	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $92	+0% $167	+5% $242	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $223	base $167	+0.5pp $110	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2040 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2065	$2,200	$1.07	53d	1	0.13mi
2025 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,495	$1.12	73d	1	0.15mi
2016 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	93d	1	0.17mi
2187 Schuwirth Rd Converse, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1085	$1,887	$1.74	9d	1	0.54mi
10219 Monte Carmel Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2218	$1,880	$0.85	64d	1	0.63mi
10315 Monte Carmel Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,670	$1.06	93d	1	0.63mi
10327 Monte Carmel Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2218	$1,890	$0.85	64d	1	0.63mi
10323 Monte Carmel Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,615	$1.02	62d	1	0.63mi
10407 Monte Carmel Pl Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	2093	$1,850	$0.88	69d	1	0.64mi
10313 Lassen Park Adkins, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,850	$1.26	42d	1	0.74mi
10613 Denali Preserve Adkins, TX	4.0	2.5	1892	$2,200	$1.16	62d	1	0.82mi
2815 Charpak Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	53d	1	0.82mi
2811 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	93d	1	0.83mi
1411 Capitol Reef Adkins, TX	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,695	$1.08	35d	1	0.84mi
1215 Vallarta Centro Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1832	$1,850	$1.01	17d	1	0.84mi
2819 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	93d	1	0.85mi
1206 Casa Luminar Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,825	$0.94	93d	1	0.87mi
2802 Stigler Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,495	$0.92	53d	1	0.88mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	73d	1	0.88mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	34d	1	0.88mi
2906 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,475	$0.91	35d	1	0.92mi
2906 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,450	$0.89	24d	1	0.92mi
2843 Elion Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,425	$1.12	17d	1	0.95mi
10547 McClintock Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,900	$0.97	73d	1	0.99mi
10626 McClintock Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,795	$0.92	48d	1	1.00mi
10538 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	34d	1	1.01mi
3023 Wembley Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,000	$1.18	34d	1	1.02mi
10606 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	42d	1	1.03mi
10714 Giacconi Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,550	$0.95	64d	1	1.03mi
10547 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	33d	1	1.04mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	9d	1	1.05mi
10538 Borlaug St Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$1,800	$0.94	27d	1	1.05mi
10707 Giacconi Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,686	$1.33	93d	1	1.06mi
1117 King Eider Adkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,750	$1.24	13d	1	1.06mi
3035 Selhurst St Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,800	$1.16	73d	1	1.07mi
10406 Sedge Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,100	$1.15	53d	1	1.10mi
10754 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,450	$1.15	73d	1	1.10mi
10707 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,696	$0.87	52d	1	1.11mi
10707 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1955	$1,630	$0.83	53d	1	1.11mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	93d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $219,500 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $219,500 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $219,500 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $219,500 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $219,500 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $219,500 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $219,500 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $219,500 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   statusdays on market $219,500 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 174 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 173 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 172 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 171 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 170 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 168 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 167 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 166 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricestatusdays on market $219,500 Price Change 165 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $228,500 Active 164 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $228,500 Active 163 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $228,500 Active 162 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $228,500 Active 161 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $228,500 Active 160 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $228,500 Active 159 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $228,500 Active 157 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    statusdays on market $228,500 Active 156 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 155 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 153 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 152 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 151 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 150 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 149 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 148 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $228,500 Price Change 147 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricestatusdays on market $228,500 Price Change 146 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 144 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,000 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,000 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 133 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 129 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 128 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 127 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 124 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 123 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $229,000 Active 122 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Price Change 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,017 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,403/yr (+$284/mo · 554.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $2,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,000–$24,000 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that can increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Converse

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 63,067
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $219,000 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $219,500 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $225,000 LERA
• 2026-01-31 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.