Is 31722 Farlam Farms Trl in Fulshear, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.9% cap rate and $-321/mo modeled cash flow at a $275,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 31722 Farlam Farms Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,583/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.61

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.2/15.0
Cash flow +7.7/30.0
Schools +6.0/10.0
1% rule +4.4/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$275,000

31722 Farlam Farms Trl · Fulshear, TX 77441

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,651 sqft lot Garage $154/sqft · 17% below area Est $323k · 15% under $104/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Built in 2023, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the master-planned community of Tamarron offers a bright open floor plan. The gourmet kitchen features Silestone quartz countertops, a large eat-in island with deep undermount stainless sink, 42" cabinets, ceramic tile backsplash, DuPure water filtration system, Whirlpool stainless appliances, and a walk-in pantry. It opens to the casual dining area and a family room with a wall of windows. The private owner’s suite features high ceilings, plush carpet, and a spa-like bath with dual undermount sinks, granite vanity, shaker cabinets, an oversized shower with seamless glass door, large tile floors, and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

Large eat-in island
Gourmet kitchen
Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (20.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (6.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $218k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,342 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 4.89%
Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $323,112
List price: $275,000
Delta: -14.89%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3011 Ferris Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-0%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	82
3002 Ferris Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-0%)	0mo	$304,990	$172	82
3003 Liams Tower Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-0%)	0mo	$309,990	$174	70
3034 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,717 (-4%)	0mo	$294,990	$172	66
3511 Ashe Landing Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	64
3007 Finns Tunnel Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	0mo	$304,990	$198	55
31427 Harp Ridge Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	0mo	$294,990	$191	54
31331 Harp Ridge Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+14%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	52
3010 Ferris Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	1mo	$304,990	$198	50
3011 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-14%)	1mo	$279,990	$182	44
3006 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-14%)	1mo	$254,990	$166	44
3022 Liams Tower Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-14%)	1mo	$259,990	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.1%
Equity multiple: 0.06×
Total profit: $-72,237
Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

IRR: -54.6%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-117,151
Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 132 active · 164 under contract
Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $314,990 ($179/sqft)
Median days on market: 31 d
This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 1928
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,583 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
Tax from tax record: −$701 /mo · $8,407/yr
Insurance: −$115
HOA: −$104
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,989

Max offer price $218,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-243	+0% $-321	+5% $-399	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-525	-5% $-423	+0% $-321	+5% $-219	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-251	base $-321	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,750
Closing costs: $8,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3206 Langley Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,300	$1.01	83d	1	0.14mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	0.32mi
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	64d	1	0.56mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,456	$1.43	0d	5	1.17mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	184d	1	1.33mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	153d	1	1.36mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	100d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Annual association fee of $1,250Association fee includes clubhouse and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached two-car garage
Security: Owned security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property
Construction: Built in 2023Brick, cement siding, and wood siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPrivate yardBackyard fenceCleared lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas oven and rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the first floor
Flooring: Laminate flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with shower only, tub and shower, and vanity
Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
Interior features: Breakfast barGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room combinationPantry and walk-in pantrySplit bedroomsWalk-in closetCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatInstant hot waterEnergy-efficient appliances, insulation, lighting, roof, thermostat, and water heaterVentilation for indoor air quality
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryerWasher hookupElectric and gas dryer hookupsTankless water heater

HOA detail $104/mo · $1,248/yr

Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-21

remarks 688-char remark
2026-10-21

pricedays on marketlisting id $275,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $299,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $8,407 · $701/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $8,407 · $701/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,996
− Mortgage interest: −$15,404
− Property taxes: −$8,407
− Insurance: −$1,375
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
− Management: −$2,480
− HOA: −$1,248
− Depreciation: −$8,000
Taxable loss: −$8,398

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
After-tax cash flow: $-1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,920–$26,760 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior trim and replacing the light fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
Resale Replace light fixtures — Improves the home's aesthetic and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

Score: 69/100
State rank: #430
US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 41,324
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 41,324
Household income: $184,390
Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
Current HPI: 275.8798
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-10-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-10-20 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
2026-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-17 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
2026-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-15 Listed $309,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,407 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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