455 Road 5202 · Dayton, TX 77327

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 246 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 9,583 sqft lot $88/sqft · 46% below area Est $185k · 46% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Natural light
• Nice-sized lot

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NICE-SIZED LOT
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.42%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,891
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -45.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,261
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $21,363
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $99,900 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

15. 2026-05-07
    price $102,900 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

16. 2026-01-21
    price $112,900 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

17. 2026-01-21
    status Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

18. 2026-01-21
    status Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

19. 2026-01-07
    historical 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

20. 2026-01-07
    historical 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

21. 2025-10-01
    listed $119,900 Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    This well-kept 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a bright, open layout perfect for comfortable living. The home has been lovingly maintained, featuring modern finishes, a spacious kitchen with plenty of storage, and a cozy living area filled with natural light. Sitting on a nice-sized lot, there’s room to enjoy outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own space. Conveniently located near Hwy 59/69, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and schools while still enjoying the peace of country living. Affordable, move-in ready, and only a few years old!

22. 2025-08-06
    historical
23. 2025-07-11
    price $119,900
24. 2025-04-08
    price $129,900
25. 2025-02-07
    listed $140,900 Active
26. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,043/yr (+$87/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2022 single-wide mobile home in Cleveland, TX is move-in ready with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It offers a good condition score and potential for modest updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is durable
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is durable ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $102,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $112,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $140,900 HARMLS
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.