4625 Cedar Dr · Hillsboro, MO 63050

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Other public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1963 8,964 sqft lot $137/sqft · 20% below area Est $155k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

Key facts

• 8,964 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 226 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.6% in Hillsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#434 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsboro R-III (rural): math 27% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #204 of 324 in MO (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,430
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -19.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,744
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,942
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63050

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $908/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $201	+0% $165	+5% $130	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $118	+0% $165	+5% $213	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $197	base $165	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Timber Ridge Dr Hillsboro, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	2d	12	1.37mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $124,900 Pending 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    status Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

17. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

18. 2026-02-23
    price $139,900 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

19. 2026-01-13
    price $149,900 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

20. 2026-01-09
    status Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

21. 2025-11-18
    price $159,900 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

22. 2025-10-11
    listed $169,900 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious layout with room to customize and make it your own. Featuring a versatile floor plan, ample natural light, and generous living areas, it's a perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you're looking to invest or create your dream space, this property is ready for your personal touch.

23. 2025-01-16
    historical
24. 2025-01-09
    price $165,000
25. 2024-12-16
    status Active
26. 2024-12-07
    historical
27. 2024-11-27
    listed $170,000 Active
28. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus
29. 2022-10-20
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2022-09-17
    status Pending
31. 2022-09-15
    listed $129,900 Active
32. 2019-01-24
    status Pending
33. 2019-01-22
    soldstatus
34. 2019-01-17
    soldstatus Closed
35. 2018-12-14
    historical Option
36. 2018-12-13
    status Active
37. 2018-11-29
    historical Active Under Contract
38. 2018-11-23
    listed $94,900 Active
39. 2007-04-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$303/yr (+$25/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$908
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$67
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $1,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsboro R-III
• NCES district ID: 2914430
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $59,236
• Composite: 30.35/100
• National rank: #6262
• State rank: #204 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hillsboro

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #434
• US rank: #17861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillsboro, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,681

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.93%
• Current HPI: 233.2931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+47.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Listed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-16 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Listed $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-20 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-15 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-14 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-13 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-29 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-23 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $908 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.