386 Townbridge Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 468 Days on market

Built 1990 4,256 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home recently remodeled ; all the furniture was bought new. Carpet is new & new glass top stove & new refig. Very nicely done. It is a perfect home for a winter retreat just waiting for someone to move in. Linens & dishes are included. VER ACTIVE SUPER SENIOR COMMUNITY, GOLF, FISHING, TENNIS, SHUFFLE, FULL BAR , VERY ACTIVE BEAUTIFUL MILION DOLLAR CLUBHOUSE WITH HEATED SWIMMING POOL AND JACUZZI. RESIDENT OWNED THEREFORE WELL TAKEN CARE OF.

Key facts

• Hi-rise toilets
• Updated windows
• French doors

Tags

• FRENCH DOORS
• BONUS ROOM
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• HI-RISE TOILETS
• COUNTER-HEIGHT VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential, owner-listed living area of 948 square feet; Furnished; Irrigation equipment present
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA fees $387; total annual fees $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee of $387 (includes cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, trash, security, common area taxes, private road maintenance, recreational facilities, escrow reserves); Association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, golf, recreation facilities, storage, gated entry and street lights; Community features include deed restrictions, dog park, golf carts allowed, buyer approval required and special community restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (cats and dogs; weight limit 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with room for 2 vehicles; Private maintained asphalt road with road maintenance agreement
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available/connected; High-speed internet/BB/HS available; Phone available; Fire hydrant present; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Crawlspace foundation; West-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Awning(s); French doors; Rain gutters; Storage; Assigned boat slip and access to lake facilities; Boat ramp (private); Fishing pier; Deck; Outdoor pool and spa with heating and lighting; Spa is in-ground and heated; Pool has fiber optic lighting, gunite construction, solar heat, tile and lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Concrete; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric); Heat recovery unit; Central air; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane, insulated and thermal windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Storm windows; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry room; Laundry in garage; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $135k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,201
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,782
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	23d	1	0.76mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	14d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 468 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 467 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 466 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 465 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 463 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 460 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 459 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 458 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 457 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 454 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $135,000 Active 452 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 451 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 450 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $140,000
15. 2026-04-02
    price $139,999
16. 2026-03-02
    price $140,000
17. 2025-07-15
    price $150,000
18. 2025-03-07
    listed $166,400 Active
19. 2006-01-31
    soldstatus $73,000
20. 2006-01-27
    soldstatus $73,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Home recently remodeled ; all the furniture was bought new. Carpet is new & new glass top stove & new refig. Very nicely done. It is a perfect home for a winter retreat just waiting for someone to move in. Linens & dishes are included. VER ACTIVE SUPER SENIOR COMMUNITY, GOLF, FISHING, TENNIS, SHUFFLE, FULL BAR , VERY ACTIVE BEAUTIFUL MILION DOLLAR CLUBHOUSE WITH HEATED SWIMMING POOL AND JACUZZI. RESIDENT OWNED THEREFORE WELL TAKEN CARE OF.

21. 2005-07-04
    listed $79,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Home recently remodeled ; all the furniture was bought new. Carpet is new & new glass top stove & new refig. Very nicely done. It is a perfect home for a winter retreat just waiting for someone to move in. Linens & dishes are included. VER ACTIVE SUPER SENIOR COMMUNITY, GOLF, FISHING, TENNIS, SHUFFLE, FULL BAR , VERY ACTIVE BEAUTIFUL MILION DOLLAR CLUBHOUSE WITH HEATED SWIMMING POOL AND JACUZZI. RESIDENT OWNED THEREFORE WELL TAKEN CARE OF.

22. 2004-04-21
    soldstatus $60,500
23. 1997-09-15
    soldstatus $31,500
24. 1994-08-23
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,502
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $3,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+438.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listed $166,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-27 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-04 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1997-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 1994-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,502 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.