322 Melbourn Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1989 5,419 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath , or 2 bwd 2 bath . other in law- suit separate off street parking, separate enterance, or 2 bed 2 bath with office, man cave, or sewing craft room. .. Updated. .. added front porch. New front entry. textured Rooms. Spacious front office, game, family room, teacher or business office w/ French doors. Open floor plan; dinning, living, kitchen rooms. Updated Sun room; new entry door , sliding windows sliding doors. . 2nd driveway, guest can have their own entrance to Sun Room and 3rd bedroom. .. 3rd bed room with large walk in closet. Combination workshop, golf, textured, - dry walled. All under a steel roof. Front porch, Car port. For Sale by Owner. Home in 55 plus community.

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Open floor plan
• In law suite

Tags

• IN LAW SUITE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• UPDATED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FRONT OFFICE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED SUN ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house
• Construction: Approximately 1,500 square feet of living area; Built in 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $149k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.31%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,801
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $52,844
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $756	-5% $714	+0% $671	+5% $629	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $588	+0% $671	+5% $755	+10% $838
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $709	base $671	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.67mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.15mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.22mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $149,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   status $149,000 Under Contract 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-02-18
    listed $149,000 Active
13. 2025-06-08
    historical
14. 2025-02-23
    price $174,999
15. 2025-02-16
    price $149,999
16. 2025-01-11
    price $174,900
17. 2024-12-09
    status Active
18. 2024-12-08
    historical
19. 2024-11-26
    price $180,000
20. 2024-06-29
    price $185,000
21. 2024-06-08
    listed $198,000 Active
22. 2024-05-03
    price $199,999
23. 2024-04-28
    price $215,000
24. 2012-03-27
    listed $84,900
25. 2011-11-10
    historical
26. 2009-04-21
    listed $95,000
27. 2007-05-02
    listed $114,500
28. 1993-12-20
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $6,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+272.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $149,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-06-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $174,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-08 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $199,999 Fizber.com
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $215,000 Fizber.com
• 2012-03-27 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-21 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-02 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,802 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.