7337 Morningside Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 7,449 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $302k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Ryder, a new home floor plan at Morningside in Panama City, Florida. The Ryder is a large open floor plan design complete with many features and space for you and your family. As you walk up to the home, you will be welcomed by the covered front porch and the spacious two-car garage. Around the house you will see durable vinyl siding all around, large yards at Morningside, and a large, spacious covered rear porch as well. Both porches have plenty of room for patio furniture to enjoy your day reading a book or watching those beautiful Florida sunsets. As you walk inside the home, the guest bedrooms and guest bathroom with are located at the front of the home. Each bedroom comes with soft carpet floors and a spacious closet for clothing and storage. Further down the hallway is the garage and additional guest bedroom next to the laundry room. The hallway opens to the large open living room and kitchen leading to primary bedroom and backdoor. The kitchen has an island, a large pantry, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to it is the dining area with a double window next to the back door looking out into your covered rear patio and large back yard. The bathrooms and kitchen have beautiful white cabinets and granite countertops for modern style and durability. The large primary bedroom has soft carpet floors and plenty of space for a king size bed and furniture since the closet is in the primary bathroom. In the primary bathroom you will see beautiful EVP flooring and a double vanity with granite countertops as well as a walk-in shower. The Ryder floor plan is a popular choice at Morningside. Schedule a showing to see it today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Durable vinyl siding
• Soft carpet floors

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS TWO CAR GARAGE
• DURABLE VINYL SIDING
• LARGE COVERED REAR PORCH
• SOFT CARPET FLOORS
• SPACIOUS CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-527/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,538 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,226
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: 2.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,361
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-70,748
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $302,145

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $44	+0% $-44	+5% $-132	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-133	+0% $-44	+5% $45	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $35	base $-44	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   price $309,900 1665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1665 chars)

   Welcome to the Ryder, a new home floor plan at Morningside in Panama City, Florida. The Ryder is a large open floor plan design complete with many features and space for you and your family. As you walk up to the home, you will be welcomed by the covered front porch and the spacious two-car garage. Around the house you will see durable vinyl siding all around, large yards at Morningside, and a large, spacious covered rear porch as well. Both porches have plenty of room for patio furniture to enjoy your day reading a book or watching those beautiful Florida sunsets. As you walk inside the home, the guest bedrooms and guest bathroom with are located at the front of the home. Each bedroom comes with soft carpet floors and a spacious closet for clothing and storage. Further down the hallway is the garage and additional guest bedroom next to the laundry room. The hallway opens to the large open living room and kitchen leading to primary bedroom and backdoor. The kitchen has an island, a large pantry, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to it is the dining area with a double window next to the back door looking out into your covered rear patio and large back yard. The bathrooms and kitchen have beautiful white cabinets and granite countertops for modern style and durability. The large primary bedroom has soft carpet floors and plenty of space for a king size bed and furniture since the closet is in the primary bathroom. In the primary bathroom you will see beautiful EVP flooring and a double vanity with granite countertops as well as a walk-in shower. The Ryder floor plan is a popular choice at Morningside. Schedule a showing to see it today!

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $314,900 Active 1665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1665 chars)

   Welcome to the Ryder, a new home floor plan at Morningside in Panama City, Florida. The Ryder is a large open floor plan design complete with many features and space for you and your family. As you walk up to the home, you will be welcomed by the covered front porch and the spacious two-car garage. Around the house you will see durable vinyl siding all around, large yards at Morningside, and a large, spacious covered rear porch as well. Both porches have plenty of room for patio furniture to enjoy your day reading a book or watching those beautiful Florida sunsets. As you walk inside the home, the guest bedrooms and guest bathroom with are located at the front of the home. Each bedroom comes with soft carpet floors and a spacious closet for clothing and storage. Further down the hallway is the garage and additional guest bedroom next to the laundry room. The hallway opens to the large open living room and kitchen leading to primary bedroom and backdoor. The kitchen has an island, a large pantry, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to it is the dining area with a double window next to the back door looking out into your covered rear patio and large back yard. The bathrooms and kitchen have beautiful white cabinets and granite countertops for modern style and durability. The large primary bedroom has soft carpet floors and plenty of space for a king size bed and furniture since the closet is in the primary bathroom. In the primary bathroom you will see beautiful EVP flooring and a double vanity with granite countertops as well as a walk-in shower. The Ryder floor plan is a popular choice at Morningside. Schedule a showing to see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,572 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,716/yr (+$143/mo · 200.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$6,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $309,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $314,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+32.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.